New Mexico Daily Snow

Heads up, there may be fresher snow! Read the latest New Mexico Daily Snow

By Matthew Dehr, Forecaster Posted 8 years ago February 5, 2016

Here We Go

Good morning, all!

Well, the weak trough that is currently moving out of the area failed to produce any accumulations, but I am not surprised. It was always going to be an uphill battle with that one. The ridge that has been forecast for the better portion of a week is building in the far western United States, and it will dominate our pattern for at least a week. Below you can see the ridge developing. 

Source: Storm Prediction Center, some of my favorite people

The reason that I highlighted the longwave trough is because it has a lot to do with why the ridge is going to become so amplified. Troughs that are as long as the one currently draped over the continental United States move incredibly slowly. They typically develop in the dead of winter when the dynamics and energy in the northern hemisphere system are at a minimum, like they currently are. The reason that these troughs move so slowly is that they are fighting the rotation of the whole planet. Basically, the Coriolis force is trying to push them westward, while the pressure gradient and all that good stuff is trying to force it east. On this large of a scale, there are cases where the Coriolis force actually wins and the trough retrogrades. This will not happen in this scenario, but the stubbornness of the trough will only serve to amplify the ridge over the western United States. 

I have been doing some reading, and apparently the Arctic Oscillation is a big factor in the ridge building on the west coast. When cold air sinks into the eastern half of the country, a situation like we are currently experiencing develops. A negative Arctic Oscillation index (which is indicative of a weak or perturbed Polar Vortex) allows for cold air to spill into the continental United States, like we are currently seeing and will see again this week. Below is a look at the history of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) this winter. Notice that the last time the AO went negative, it correlates with the snowless end of January we experienced. Currently, we are forecast to be headed for another bout of negative AO.

Source: Climate Prediction Center

In the colorful chart, the reds show a weak polar vortex and the neutral/blue colors show a normal/strong polar vortex. You can see that right on the edge, the polar vortex is trending weaker, which is important in setting up the pattern we are currently seeing. 

On to some happier news, the snowpack in New Mexico is doing great!! Below is the snowpack update from February 5th, with the numbers in each area representing the current percent of average snow/water equivalent from the SNOTEL sites in the area. 

All in all, it has been a good winter, albeit a weird one. I have hope for the end of later third of February, but the present forecast does not include snow. I will still have a daily update for you, and if you have any suggestions or things you would like discussed, put them in the comments! Most days I have ample time to reply or digest the comments! I'm looking forward to hearing from you!

Have a great Friday!

About Our Forecaster

Matthew Dehr

Forecaster

Matthew is a senior in the School of Meteorology at the University of Oklahoma and will be graduating with a Meteorology degree in May 2016.

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