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Friday November 15th 2013 7:57am

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There is a lot riding on these early season storms.  Usually a storm brings a powder day or two, but these early season ones hold the keys for opening up the entire playground.  When I get up and see the model runs and look at the charts first thing in the morning, I breathe a huge sigh of relief when I see that everything is still on track.  Such is the case this morning.

Leading edge of the first weak wave is currently (at 6:30 AM) bringing snow to the far northern Wasatch, slowly making its way south toward the SLC area.  You can see this on the radar:

radar

 

Snow should begin by 8 AM in the mountains and continue through about noon-ish.  Still expecting 1-3″ with more possible up near the Idaho border.  Valleys will see a light rain/snow mix.

Tonight is a break before the stronger, colder storm tomorrow.  Snow should begin early in the morning and continue steadily through most of the day in the Wasatch.  Latest model runs have come in ever so slightly better than last night.  GFS brings about 6″ of snow to the Wasatch, EC and GEM bring 6-12″, and the NAM/WRF bring closer to 15″ of snow.  NAM does a better job picking up on influences like orographics and even lake enhancement, so we’ll compromise, but put a bit more weight on the NAM.

My forecast is still for 7-14″ total for the Wasatch mountains, but this is a somewhat conservative estimate and I would not be surprised if certain locations bested it.   I expect several feet of snow to fall directly below snowguns! Take advantage of the cold temps guys!

Storm will be moving out and we’ll clear up on Sunday… Quick look ahead shows another fairly weak system for late Tuesday and Wednesday of next week that could supplement snow totals a bit.

Enjoy a snowy weekend!

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