Colorado Daily Snow

Heads up, there may be fresher snow! Read the latest Colorado Daily Snow

By Joel Gratz, Founding Meteorologist Posted 10 years ago December 2, 2013

Summary:

For the mountains, heavy snow late Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday afternoon with 10-18+ inches. Roads may close Tuesday night and Wednesday morning during the heaviest snow. For the front range, snow will fall from Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning with a couple inches of accumulation. Very cold air for the entire state Wednesday through the weekend with lows below zero and highs around 5-15 degrees. Welcome to winter!

Details:

The mountains along and north of I-70 saw snow last night with accumulations from a trace to 2 inches. Clouds, flurries, and a few snow showers will hang around this same area today on Monday and Monday night, but I do not expect any accumulations.

The main event will start on Tuesday and last through Wednesday afternoon. Areas that are further north like Steamboat will experience the snow earlier from about midday Tuesday through Wednesday sunrise. Central areas from I-70 down to Crested Butte will see the heaviest snow Tuesday evening through midday Wednesday. And southern areas around Telluride, Silverton, Durango, and Wolf Creek will see the heaviest snow from late, late Tuesday night through Wednesday evening.

I am confident that most locations will see heavy snow with accumulations around 10-18 inches from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday. The powder day will be on Wednesday. See detailed forecasts for each mountain here: http://opsw.co/CO1-5

The upcoming weather pattern is absolutely perfect for heavy snow, and here's why.

First, we'll have plenty of moisture in the atmosphere to create snow.

Second, the wind direction at and above mountain top is from a west-ish direction, which means all mountains can see good snow because this wind gets lifted up by the mountains and rising air creates snow.

Third and most importantly, the atmosphere will lift the air in two additional ways. One way will be a cold front that stalls over northern and central Colorado. The front is like a wedge, forcing air to rise up and over the front. The second way is the jet stream, which will stay over Colorado for 36+ hours. Through some *fun* math equations, the fast moving air of the jet stream at 35,000 feet helps lift the air below it, and since rising air makes snow, this is also working in our favor.

colorado snow


I lack some confidence in the exact location of the heaviest snow and also in the exact timing of the storm.

The heaviest snow will fall along the stalled cold front. The models are not set on exactly where the front will stall, and we likely won't know this with confidence until the front is actually stalled. Modern weather forecasting technology is incredible, but it's not great with fine details like this. The overall setup is so good that I'm confident that most areas will see heavy snow, but some locations will see more than forecast if the front stalls longer near them, and other areas might get less if the front sets up in a different location. Right now the consensus of all models is that the front will stall somewhere around Aspen to I-70.

In terms of timing, the main inconsistency is that the American GFS and NAM models show lots of snow on Tuesday, while the often more accurate European and British models show the heaviest snow waiting to fall until Tuesday night. I leaned the forecast toward these slower models, but if they trend fasters, I'll update the numbers this afternoon for more snow on Tuesday.

The snow will clear out on Wednesday afternoon and evening. Then get ready for very cold temperatures lasting through the weekend. Lows will be below zero and highs will struggle to get about 10F.

We could see a bit more snow this weekend, most likely Saturday night and Sunday. More on this next storm later in the week.

The longer range looks pretty good with no large ridge to our west blocking storms. This isn't a promise for lots of snow, but it does point to the potential for a continued chances for storms every 3-5 days, and that's as much as we can hope for when looking at the 10+ day forecast.

Get your shovels, boards, and heaters ready because it's time to ride! Look for more terrain opening later this week and weekend...

JOEL GRATZ

About Our Forecaster

Joel Gratz

Founding Meteorologist

Joel Gratz is the Founding Meteorologist of OpenSnow and has lived in Boulder, Colorado since 2003. Before moving to Colorado, he spent his childhood as a (not very fast) ski racer in eastern Pennsylvania.

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