Sat. 8 PM Update:

A very interesting day on the models.  I wasn't able to see the new runs today until this evening and was nervous the models back tracked after I put out a forecast this morning.  It was the opposite today.  Remember the Canadian showing 4-5 feet of snow along the crest that we threw out this morning because it was an outlier?  Well watch this on the other models today.

Here is the GFS 6z, 12z, and 18z showing increased precip with each run.

6z

12z

18z

So the GFS is up from 12-18 inches along the crest to 2-3 feet.  The European is on the same trend today.  Here is a look at the 0z and then the 12z runs.  The Euro only runs 2 times a day.

0z

12z

The Euro is trying to drop 3-5 feet along the crest on the 12z run vs. 12-18 previously on the 0z run.  The Canadian which was showing 4-6 feet this morning is then only one that decreased precip into the 3-5 foot range along the crest in line with the Euro.

We threw out the Canadian this morning with the other models showing only an 1-1.5 inches of liquid vs 5-6 inches.  This evening they are all showing 2.5-5 inches of liquid.  Not a bad day for trends on the models.

This is the game we will play over the next 4 days until the storm arrives Thursday.  We will check the trend each day.  Hopefully we keep trending wetter not dryer.  I am still VERY cautious about how much precip the models are showing.  There is a nice moisture tap and a cold front pushing down from the North which are good ingredients.  However, it is rare to get a big storm after this long of a dry spell.  It is usually harder to knock down the ridge.  The storm on Tuesday may be doing a lot of that though before the jet stream pushes South down the coast.

Keep saying those prayers...BA

 

From This Morning:

Summary:

Dry conditions through Wednesday before a change in the pattern could mean some much needed snowfall by the end of the week.

Details:

We have been talking about a change in the pattern at the end of the month for a week and a half now.  Hold on we are almost there.  There has been a lot of model bashing this Winter but if we get snow in 5 days remember all the models starting showing the pattern change for the end of the month 2+ weeks out.  No matter how much snow falls it will at least be nice to see the pattern go from this on Wednesday.

to this on Friday...

The GFS was trying to push some of the moisture into the basin on Tuesday as it begins to push into the West Coast.  It has flipped back in line with the other models in keeping a weak ridge along the CA coast and keeping the precip up into far Northern CA and Oregon.

The GFS and Canadian models have come more in line with the European this morning in bringing the precip further South later Thursday into Friday.  The models have the system tapping into some moisture from down near Hawaii as it approaches the coast so they have slightly more liquid this morning, and snow levels could start out above 7000 ft.  They fall though as the cold front pushes South on Friday.  

Here is the total liquid through Friday on the GFS.  It is showing enough liquid for 6-12 inches of snow on the mountains in the basin and 12-18 inches along the crest.

Here is the European showing similar amounts of liquid as the GFS.

The wettest models this morning are the Canadian and European Control.  They have enough liquid for 12-18 inches across the basin and up to 2 feet along the crest.  Here is the Canadian through Friday.

The other interesting thing about the Canadian and European Control is that they are further South and wetter with two additional waves that could rotate through Saturday night and Sunday night.  The first model runs I looked at this morning were the Canadian and I had to rub my eyes a couple of times to make sure I was really awake.  The Canadian tries to bring in additional 3-4 inches of liquid along the crest with the additional systems Saturday night and Sunday night.  Here is the total liquid it has by Monday morning showing 5+ inches along the crest.

That seems a little crazy and would mean 4+ feet of snow.  Below is the snowfall forecast in inches which tends to be underdone over mountainous terrain.

Ok, so I probably shouldn't have shown you that especially those of you who read between the lines and will be very disappointed when we don't get 4 feet of snow.  But I like to show you everything that I'm seeing out there.  The Canadian is definitely an outlier so we will throw it out for now.  The main thing to pull away from all of this is the trend towards more precip on all the models this morning for Thursday into Friday.

We are getting into the 5 day window which is when we usually start to talk about possible snowfall amounts.  It is also when the forecast models start to become more accurate and confidence starts to grow in what they are showing.  For now it looks like we should stick with an intial forecast 5-6 days out of 6-12 inches on the mountains with up to 18 along the crest.  Then let's see how it looks as we get closer.  Hopefully the wetter trend continues and not the opposite.  With the way this Winter is going so far we should be extra cautious.

Long-Range:

Hey look at that, the snow is not just in the long-range section for once.  The cold air behind the front next weekend should hang on into the early part of week 2.  Then brief ridging may build in as the trough shifts East.  The ensemble runs are still showing the trough shifting back West the second half of week 2.  The operational runs of the models do have some storms returning the second half of week 2.

Stay tuned....BA