Summary:

Nice day today but unsettled weather moves in this week.  The first system will stay mainly to our North Tuesday but it will help to setup conditions for the possibility of a decent snow event later in the week.

Details:

As a large area of low pressure swirls towards the Pacific NW coast the next few days we could see some clouds, but the low will draw up warm air ahead of it.  The clouds today will be associated with a low spinning off the SoCal coast.

The Canadian is the most aggressive in trying to bring in some light precip to the Tahoe Basin on Tuesday.  Most of the other models keep all the precip just to our North.  We could see some light precip but the snow levels will be high so it would be in the form of rain showers.  The main impact of this low is to help break apart the ridge which will pave the way for the next storm to make it into Northern CA on Thursday into the Weekend.

The next low will approach the coast on Thursday while a cold front pushes down the West Coast.  The low approaching the coast looks like it will tap into some tropical moisture.  That is why the forecast models were trending wetter all day yesterday.  The low and cold front will join to bring what looks like some decent snowfall and falling temperatures into Friday, with snow showers possibly lingering into Saturday.

The total liquid amounts have backed off a little this morning compared to last night, but not much.  We will see some fluctuations this week as we get closer the event and will have to fine tune amounts.  Here are the model outputs this morning, which mostly all agree on 1-2 inches of liquid over the basin and 2-3 inches along the crest.  For the mountains we can equate that to feet of snow as a rough estimate until we get closer and have a better idea what the snow ratios will be.

GFS

Canadian

European

Behind the cold front the temperatures will be much colder next weekend.  The models are showing another system rotating down the coast next Sunday that could add to the snowfall.

Long-Range:

The long-range of the ensemble runs still show the trough shifting slightly east the first half of week 2 and back West the 2nd half.  The operational model runs show a break in the storms the first half of week 2 and then a return of storms the second half of week 2 in line with the ensembles pattern.  This is fantasy range stuff, but it gives an idea of what the pattern may do week 2.

Of note the MJO is of moderate strength and has moved from phase 6 into phase 7.  It will be interesting to see what happens with that the next 2 weeks.

Stay tuned...BA