I have been watching the forecast model runs all week.  They continued to show the ridge off the West Coast being replaced by a trough next week with a couple of systems possibly bringing us precip.  The trend was that the first system Tuesday stayed just to our North and then possibly the following system digging further South next weekend.  

Today the runs of the GFS model started digging the trough further South Tuesday into Wednesday with up to an inch of liquid along the crest.  Some of the other models are not in agreement yet.  The European model is slightly furthern North with only light precip, and the Canadian model is keeping all of the precip to our North.

Here is the total precip forecast from the latest GFS run.

And the Canadian

The snow levels on the GFS and European model runs are around 8,000 ft. for most of the event dropping to 7000 ft. near the end as the cold front passes.  We will keep watching the next few days to see how far South the system digs and how much precip we could see.

After that another system may push in next weekend as another trough pushes into the West Coast.  Right now that one looks like it will keep most of the precip to our North with only light amounts possible.

Another system may push in behind that as the ridge stays well off the coast and troughs drop into the West Coast.  The MJO strengthening in phase 1 is a positive sign for this more active pattern coming up as well.  Overall the wet season looks like it will be getting started for the Pacific NW the next couple of weeks.  We will be right on the Southern edge of the active pattern so we will watch each system to see how far South they could come.

Stay tuned....BA