Feels a bit weird kicking off the first Upper Midwest post of the season while wearing short sleeves in late October, but that's been the autumn we've had so far in the Upper Midwest. But with Halloween just around the corner and dreams of snowflakes and powder days starting to creep in, it seemed like a good time to post the first update for the season.

Let's first tackle the questions everyone asks: What is this winter going to be like?

I hate this question. And almost every meteorologist does. Weather models are really good at giving us a solid forecast for about a week out, and climate models are getting pretty good at the year-plus timescale. But when it comes to the 3-6 month forecasts, it's a lot harder than you think. People remember weather piece-by-piece ("remember that epic snow storm we had in January"), rather than averages ("overall we had a cold, but mostly dry January").

That being said, you still need an answer. And this year looks to be headed in the direction of an El Niño year for the Upper Midwest. What does that mean? Well we should have around normal precipitation and slightly warmer than average temperatures. Does that mean no -30º or blizzards in January? Absolutely not. But I feel pretty confident in saying it will, on average, be less frigid than last winter. If you want to read more of OpenSnow's seasonal outlook, we have a few news articles you can read:

• Should We Trust the Farmers Almanac (answer: NO)
• Where did the snow fall last season?
• How will El Niño impact snowfall in 2014/15?
• Another Forecast for the 2014-2015 Season

Now looking more in the short term, this week should bring the first feel of actual October weather. A cold front is slowly pushing across Minnesota today and will get into Wisconsin evening. While there are currently rain showers west of the Twin Cities area, this moisture will dissipate at it moves east bringing cooler temperatures more than rainfall.

This pattern of slightly above normal temperature followed by a day or two of slightly below normal temps should stick around at least for the next 10 days as this progressive pattern stays in place. However, with more disagreement between the models nearing day 14, we could be in for a change by the first week of November, just not sure of what the change will be yet.

Until then, enjoy the beautiful autumn weather!