Summary:

Nice weather this week will give way to a cold storm moving in Friday.  Expecting snow for all elevations by Friday night as the cold front moves through, but nothing significant.  Skies should begin to clear by Saturday afternoon with warmer and drier weather going into next week.  Another system possible by the end of next week.

Details:

I have been seeing a lot of hype on media outlets for the weak system moving in on Friday.  Seems like a setup to be let down to me.  You don't normally ski this time of year on your rock skis unless we see 2 feet fall, a foot if you are crazy.  We will be lucky to hit 12 inches on the highest peaks along the crest with this storm looking model runs.  By Winter standards this system would just be a refresher for the slopes.  I'll let you know when it's time to get hyped, but this is not the storm.

It will be the first chance of measurable snow at lake level though and I'm excited to see any snow.  The forecast hasn't changed much this week.  The main changes over the last 36 hours are that the system looks a bit slower to arrive Friday, and more likely to split with the heaviest precip headed to our South near Mammoth.

The precip should begin Friday afternoon beginning along the crest and then pushing into the Tahoe Basin as the cold front pushes through into Friday night.  Snow levels start high but quickly drop to lake level Friday night.  The forecast models are showing the system splitting more as the jet stream is to our South and the heaviest precip shifts quickly into Mono County.  The Canadian model shows most of the precip staying to our South with just a few inches along the crest West of the lake and dusting for the basin.

The European forecast model is on the other end of the spectrum, holding the system together a little better and has it hanging around a bit longer into Saturday.  With that scenario we could see 3-6 inches above 7000 feet on the East side of the lake and 6-9 inches on the West side, with an outside chance of up to 12 inches on the highest peaks West of the lake along the crest.

For now I am going to stick with the GFS which is in between the two and is in line with my forecast from Monday.  It splits the system with most of the precip going to our South, but brings in enough for 1-3 inches above 7000 feet on the East side of the basin and 3-6 inches on the West side, with up to 9 possible on the highest peaks West of the lake.  At lake level a coating to an inch possible on the East side of the basin and 1-3 inches on the West side along 89.  These snowfall forecast maps don't work very well, but here is the GFS snowfall forecast.  Should be higher amounts shown for Tahoe and for Mammoth based on the precip forecast and snow levels.

So not a big system but one to whiten the mountains and get us stoked for Winter.  We will have to watch the system closely as it gets closer on Friday.  The Canadian scenario with a dusting and European with up to a foot on the crest are both possibilities we will have to watch for.

Long-Range:

We warm up and dry out starting Sunday into next week.  The next chance of snow is another storm moving into the West Coast by the end of next week.  The pattern does look active into November, especially to our North.  Hopefully the storm track is far enough South to get Winter started early.

Stay tuned, stay grounded.....BA

P.S.  I have been posting every other day or so.  I will post daily during storms and then go to full Daily Snow status once the ski resorts start to open in November.