Boise Region Daily Snow
By Matthew Platt, Forecaster Posted 2 months ago December 6, 2023
We have some action over the next 5 days or so! The great part is that temperatures will be cold enough for snow at all resort elevations which will help heal the snowpack. Let's take a look!
Short Term Forecast
It doesn't look like the rain did too much damage to our snowpack. Coverage still seems to be solid at the resorts and the upcoming storms will certainly help out snowmaking efforts.
Credit: Dan Noakes @ http://YouTube.com/dannoakes
Our area will see stray showers move into the area throughout the day. The primary storm will move into the area this evening. Any showers during the day will fall as rain at all elevations. Fortunately, models are showing that showers will be light and scattered.
Our internal models show that snow levels will drop below 6k feet around 11 PM tonight which is the period of heaviest precipitation. Freezing levels will drop below 6k feet by around 1 AM on Thursday and continue dropping through the daytime hours.
The NAM3k indicates that this first storm lasts from this evening through Thursday morning. Snowfall totals could be quite healthy across the area! Below is the precipitation map from now through Thursday morning:
The precipitation is always too aggressive with the NAM3k, but you get an idea of where the favored locations are. We can expect 4-8 inches at Tamarack, Brundage, and the surrounding mountains up north. Bogus will see lesser amounts with 3-6 inches expected.
The next round of precipitation moves in around mid-afternoon on Thursday. This is a weaker storm but the temperatures will start out much colder with freezing levels down around 3500 feet. I don't expect a ton of snow from this round of moisture, but I do think there is some upside potential. Let's call for another 2-4 inches at Tamarack, Brundage, and Bogus for this round.
Not bad at all for a 72-hour period. Tamarack and Brundage could see a total of 6-12 inches of snow with Bogus seeing 5-10 inches. I will say this... I am leaning more conservative than some of the models are. Below is a snowfall plume provided by UofU for Big Creek Summit:
Most of the models are calling for around 15 inches of snow and there is pretty good agreement between them (the bold lines are clustered together). Do those snow dances and hope we get lucky!
Models call for another storm to impact our area on Saturday morning and last into Sunday morning. This is a more AR-style storm with strong precipitation and warmer temperatures expected. The good news is I don't expect snow levels to move above 5k feet.
Models are in a bit of a disagreement as to where the strongest precipitation will land. The GFS brings the storm in from the northwest and delivers a good shot of snowfall. The Euro brings in a strong band of precipitation just south of the Treasure Valley that impacts the Owyhees and very northern Utah. I have to punt on any snowfall forecasts for now until models come to an agreement on a solution.
After our weekend storm, we get a whole lot of sunshine. Models show next to no action for the following 10 days or so. Temperatures are forecasted to be right around average so resorts should be able to continue to blow snow. Below is the average height anomaly from December 12th-22nd courtesy of the GFS ensembles:
The warm colors indicate ridging (persistent sunshine) and the cool colors indicate troughing (persistent storminess). Could be a pretty boring December if this forecast holds.
Enjoy the snowfall and do those snow dances!
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