Wednesday was full-on spring skiing with mostly sunny skies and on-mountain high temperatures in the 30s. It was warm out there!

Now on Thursday, the storm is on our doorstep. The first half of Thursday will be dry and warm with temperatures in the 20s and 30s. Then the first burst of snow will move from west to east across our mountains between about 1 pm to 5 pm. This means that some mountains farther to the west could see some powder by the last chair, and most other mountains will be shutting down just as this first snow squall moves through. Accumulations on Thursday should be 1-3 inches.

On Thursday night and Friday, snow showers will continue to produce snow accumulations due to lingering moisture, a favorable temperature for fluffy dendrite snowflakes to form, and a wind direction from the west.

On Thursday night, we will likely see at least another 1-3 inches of snow, and then on Friday, snow showers in the wake of a strengthening storm are always tricky to predict with some spots getting 5-10 inches during the day and most areas likely in the 2-6 inch range.

Friday should offer the best powder with snow falling through the day (after the early morning reports). It'll take at least about 8-10 inches of total snow from Thursday afternoon through Friday to cover the firm base, so amounts lower than this will likely be more enjoyable on top of groomed runs.

On Friday night, snow showers will continue through midnight for areas near and north of I-70, so there will likely be a little bit of fresh fluffy snow to enjoy on Saturday morning for this area.

Total snowfall from Thursday midday to Friday at midnight will likely average 5-10 inches with a few spots in the 10-15 inch range. A wind from the west, as we will see on Friday, often favors Steamboat, Beaver Creek, Powderhorn, the Aspen area, Irwin, and the Telluride and Silverton area. Also, the latest high-resolution forecast models (continue to) show a decent chance for higher amounts on Friday around the Summit County ski areas of Copper, Breckenridge, Loveland, and A-Basin, so these spots should be watched as well.

This is the high-resolution CAIC 2km model…

…and this is the high-resolution OpenSnow 3km model.

While there are differences between the models, they are in general agreement, which gives us a decent amount of confidence in the forecast, though the showery nature of the snowfall on Friday always introduces some uncertainty in the forecast.

Following the storm on Thursday and Friday, we will see dry weather on Saturday, Sunday, and Monday with high temperatures in the 30s, lots of sunshine, and spring conditions.

The next storm should be on Tuesday and Wednesday, April 4-5, with snow perhaps lingering into Thursday, April 6. At first look, this storm could be similar to the current storm on March 30-31 with an initial burst of snow and then ~24 hours of snow showers and additional accumulations. Tuesday or Wednesday could be the best powder days, and we'll narrow down the details as the time gets closer.

Following the storm between April 4-6, we may gradually transition to a less stormy weather pattern. It is too soon to call the longer-range forecast 'dry' but the latest 10-15 day forecasts are trending toward less stormy weather and more dry and warm weather. We'll have to see if that forecast holds.

Thanks for reading!

Joel Gratz

Geography Key

Northern Mountains
Steamboat, Bluebird Backcountry, Granby, Beaver Creek, Vail, Ski Cooper, Copper, Breckenridge, Keystone, Loveland, Arapahoe Basin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass, Eldora, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Along the Divide
Loveland, Arapahoe Basin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass

East of the Divide
Eldora, Echo, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Central Mountains
Aspen, Sunlight, Monarch, Crested Butte, Irwin, Powderhorn

Southern Mountains
Telluride, Silverton – north side of the southern mountains | Purgatory, Wolf Creek – south side of the southern mountains