Dry and mild conditions continue through Wednesday. Two storms target Colorado through Thanksgiving weekend. Storm #1 Thursday night and storm #2 on Saturday. Friday morning and especially Saturday afternoon and/or Sunday morning should be great times to catch fresh turns. Watching the final days of November and into early December for more action.
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Short Term Forecast
Monday was another gorgeous day and we have two more on deck for Tuesday and Wednesday. Daytime highs will rise into mid-to-upper 30s on Tuesday and it will be even warmer on Wednesday.
The real fun will begin on Thanksgiving day as the first of two storms moves into Colorado. Clouds will begin to increase through Thursday morning, ahead of increasing chances for snow showers into Thursday afternoon.
I'll then be watching Thursday evening and into Thursday night for the best chance at accumulating snowfall across the Colorado high country from storm #1. This storm will lack the strength of storm #2 and it will be moving very fast so our time is limited. The southern mountains will likely be favored for the best accumulations thanks to mild, southwesterly flow ahead of cooler air and a wind from the west-northwest on Thursday night.
Overall, look for 3-6 inches in the southern mountains (Telluride, Silverton, Purgatory, Wolf Creek) and 2-4 inches throughout the remaining central and northern mountains by Friday morning.
We'll then catch a break through most of Friday as we await the arrival of storm #2 on Saturday night. My confidence and excitement continue to grow with this second system as it has all the right ingredients to deliver healthy accumulations beginning on Saturday and continuing into Saturday night.
Below is a look at the latest ensemble snow forecast for McClure Pass, which is located west of Aspen and northwest of Crested Butte. Time goes from left to right on the bottom, with the two arrows on the right pointing to storm #1 and #2.
If everything continues on its current course, we'll be looking at 6-12 inches throughout the central and northern mountains and 4-8 inches in the southern mountains from Saturday morning through Saturday night.
Start planning for Saturday afternoon (if you enjoy storm skiing) and/or Sunday morning for a great time to work off the Thanksgiving feast with powder turns at your resort of choice.
Sunday will also likely be much chillier compared to the previous days, with highs in teens and overnight lows in the single-digits on Sunday night.
Looking further ahead, it looks like we'll quiet down through the middle of next week but temperatures should remain on the cooler side.
We'll then turn to the final days of November and into early December as there are signs for an active jet stream for the Western US. This would likely lead to "something" for Colorado but as always, stay tuned and we'll keep you up-to-date on the latest.
Thanks for reading and look for my next update on Wednesday, November 21st!
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Joel's Upcoming Presentations
November 28 in Vail at Walking Mountains Science Center. Free to attend. The talk starts at 630pm. Please RSVP here.
December 5 in Denver at the Denver Athletic Club. More details soon.
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