The Colorado Daily Snow  

Summary:

Snow starts early Friday morning and continues for most of the day. Areas along and east of the divide will see a few more inches Friday night. Total accumulations will be about 3-6 inches for many mountains, with 6-12 inches along and east of the divide. Saturday, Sunday, and Monday will be dry, then a similar storm to Friday's storm will bring snow on Tuesday March 11th.

Details:

The center of Friday's storm is moving onshore over the Pacific Northwest this morning. Rain and snow is falling ahead of the storm center, from Tahoe through Idaho, Wyoming, and Montana.

Thursday morning water vapor satellite image shows the main storm swirling off the Washington coast, with significant moisture pushing inland ahead of the storm center. All of this will move southeast and will reach Colorado by Friday morning. Source: Weathertap.com

Snow will begin on Friday morning between about 2-5am for the northwestern part of the state and will fill in for most places by the mid morning hours.

The first push of snow will come from the northwest, with a solid 2-4 inches accumulating in the first part of the day.

Then by midday and afternoon, the storm will begin to dive south and cut off from the main flow of weather. This will cause the winds to blow from the north and northeast. For areas west of the divide (most ski areas), this isn't a great wind direction, but an additional few inches could fall through the afternoon. For areas along and east of the divide (Cameron Pass, RMNP, and Eldora likely, less confidence in Berthoud Pass, Winter Park, Loveland, and Abasin), we might get enough upslope flow (from the east) to create heavier snow during Friday late afternoon and evening.

The models show little consensus about this northeasterly wind. The European is most certain that we'll see a switch to northeasterly winds, the GFS is kinda into it, and the NAM model says "no way". I don't like the NAM model's solution right now, so I'll side with the Euro with a nod to the GFS.

Summing this up, most mountains west of the divide will see a quick burst of snow in the morning with lighter snow in the afternoon, with total accumulations around 3-6 or 4-8 inches. For areas along and east of the divide, snowfall might be steady or increase by the afternoon and evening, with 8-12 inches by Saturday morning. For all areas, Friday will be a nice little powder day with good snow in the morning. For areas along and east of the divide, skiing might be good all day, and first chair Saturday might be good as well with 2-4+ inches falling after close on Friday. This storm will be on the warmer side, so the powder will be fun but likely on the thicker side and not completely blower.

Here is my current estimate for the snow at each mountain: http://opsw.co/CO1-5

Saturday morning will offer a few lingering clouds and snow showers along the divide and over southern Colorado, but otherwise it will be a warmer, sunny day. A few afternoon snow showers might pop up over the San Juans with an intense but quick burst of snow around midday.

Sunday and Monday will be mostly warm and sunny. Spring skiing at its finest!

Long Range:

We'll see another storm next Tuesday the 11th, which might be similar in strength and track to Friday's storm. Then most of the end of next week and next weekend looks dry with the chance of a weaker storm next Friday/Saturday, March 14-15. The following week, the 17-21st, looks potentially more active across the west, but it's too early to figure out the details. 

JOEL GRATZ

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Summary:

Dry on Wednesday and Thursday, then 3-6 or 4-8 inches for many mountains from early Friday morning through Friday evening. Friday will be a powdery day. Snow showers and clouds might hang on for Saturday morning, then Saturday, Sunday, and Monday will be dry and sunny. The next storm will bring snow on Tuesday and Wednesday, March 11-12.

Details:

Last night's storm behaved rather well with 2-4 inches falling for most areas.

The winners were Telluride and Silverton with 7 inches. More storm energy, called vorticity, went over this area, which likely helped to increase totals. Also, Eldora recorded 10 inches as the front range upslope hit them hard. The European model was right to forecast 0.5 inches of liquid for Eldora, but I was surprised to see that equate to 10 inches of snow, which is a 20:1 snow ratio despite the relatively warm temperatures.

Today and Thursday will be sunny and dry.

The next storm will begin during the early morning on Friday (between about 3am and 5am?) and should bring a solid 3-6 inches for most mountains by midday, with perhaps 8+ inches for areas along and east of the divide as the wind goes more northerly or north-northeasterly. The models are still not in complete agreement with the path of this storm, and the path will dictate the wind direction, which will dictate where the deeper snow accumulations will drop. Hopefully I'll have more confidence in the forecast by midday Thursday. Here is my current estimate for the snow at each mountain: http://opsw.co/CO1-5

Snow forecast for Friday from the high resolution NAM model. Source: CAIC

Snow showers may continue through Friday night into Saturday morning so there could be a bit more fluff for Saturday morning in areas favored by N and NNE winds (along and east of the divide, perhaps Monarch, maybe Telluride and Silverton).

The rest of Saturday, Sunday, and Monday will be dry.

Then the next storm should bring snow to most areas, favoring the northern half of the state, on Tuesday through Wednesday, March 11-12. Again, this looks like a 3-6 inch type of event.

Long Range:

Most of the models show drier weather from the middle of next week through next weekend, with a return to snowier weather during the week of March 17-21. The exception is the often more accurate European model which doesn't show as much dry weather late next week and weekend. In any case, it is likely that we'll get a little bit of everything over the next two weeks, with a few storms and a few days of warm, spring-like temperatures.

JOEL GRATZ

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The Friends of CAIC have launched a $150,000 fundraising campaign in an effort to expand avalanche forecasting and education throughout the State of Colorado. Help them reach their goal while winning great prizes! http://www.crowdrise.com/stayinformedstayalive

Quick Tuesday afternoon update ...

The storm that will bring us snow tonight dropped about 3-5 inches over the mountains of Utah. Using this data plus updated computer models that show a quick start and end to the snow, I think the average for tonight's snow will be in 2-4 inch range for most areas, with perhaps 5 inches for higher elevations along and just east of the divide. The heaviest snow will fall between about 7pm to 10pm. Overall, this is a bit later than my forecast from this morning, and snowfall totals will be on the lower side of what I forecasted this morning.

To the east, the models continue to increase the intensity of the snow for the front range this evening, with a cold front moving through around 5pm and snow falling between about 6pm and midnight. This is similar to a storm two weeks ago when a quick 2-4+ inches fell over much of the front range. Lots of uncertainty with temperatures and the location of the heaviest snow. It'll be interesting to see it unfold.

JOEL GRATZ

Summary:

A quick burst of snow Tuesday evening with 3-6 inches for most areas between 5pm and midnight. Wednesday morning will offer some fresh turns. Wednesday and Thursday will be dry, then another storm for Friday with 3-6 or 4-8 inches for most areas, though I'm not very confident in the details of this storm. Saturday and Sunday will be warm and dry, then additional chances for light to moderate snow next Monday through Wednesday, March 10-12th.

Details:

Snow is falling in Nevada and Utah, and this will hit Coloado on Tuesday evening.

Radar animation as of 8am Tuesday morning. Source: Weathertap.com

Before the main snow arrives, there might be a few showers with a lightning strike between about 2pm and 5pm Tuesday afternoon. Then the main burst of snow will move through the state from about 5pm through 10pm on Tuesday night. The heavy snow won't last very long, but it could be intense and create slick conditions on roadways. Most of the snow will be over by midnight with accumulations of about 3-6 inches, and there will be fresh turns to be had on Wednesday morning. Keep in mind that any slopes that are south facing will get enough sun during the day to make conditions mushy, and then this mush will freeze overnight. So your best turns on Wednesday morning will be on north-facing terrain and anything groomed before or on the early side of the storm.

Snow might also fall heavily in the front range Tuesday night between about 7pm and midnight, so watch out for a few quick inches, especially south, east, and northeast of Denver.

Wednesday and Thursday will be dry, then the next storm will bring snow during the day on Friday. This storm is becoming more complicated to forecast because it will be diving south and slowing down instead of moving quickly from west-to-east. The models do not completely agree on the path of this storm. I think it'll bring most areas a quick 3-6 inches of snow during the first half of Friday, then winds will switch from the west to the north and even northeast. This means that snowfall on Friday afternoon and evening could favor Eldora, Powderhorn and Monarch while other locations see snowfall come to an end. I still think Friday will be a fun little powder day, but the forecast isn't as straightforward as I thought it would be. Stay tuned.

Forecast for Friday night, showing the storm dive south and cut off from the main west-to-east flow of weather. This will likely shift winds to blow from the northeast and north over Colorado, which will limit accumulating snowfall to just a few areas on Friday evening. Source: Twisterdata.com 

Long Range:

Saturday and Sunday will be dry and sunny, with just a few clouds and snow showers lingering over southern Colorado on Saturday morning. The main flow of weather next week will be across the northern Rockies, and some of these storms could bring light to moderate accumulations to Colorado Monday, Tuesday, and/or Wednesday (March 10-12th).

JOEL GRATZ

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Summary:

Light snow showers Monday morning for the northern half of the state. The next significant storm will bring 3-6+ inches of snow from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night, with the highest accumulations along and north of I-70. Wednesday and Thursday should be dry, then a stronger storm will bring 4-8+ inches of snow from late Thursday night through Friday night. Wednesday morning and Friday during the day will be the best powder days this week.

Details:

Moisture and some weak storm energy is combining to form clouds and a few snow showers this morning across the northern half of the state. These showers will move away by late morning. For the rest of the day, expect more sun than clouds.

Now that we're in March, the sun angle is higher, which means two things. First, any time the sun comes out, south-facing slopes will get mushy as the sun heats up the snow. These slopes will then freeze overnight, and will be crunchy the next morning until they soften. Second, the sun can heat the ground enough to cause warm air at the low levels, and this warm air rises to create convective clouds (like summer thunderstorms). These convective clouds can bring short but intense bursts of snow and gusts of wind, usually over and just downstream of the highest mountains. I saw this yesterday over the central mountains near Crested Butte and while driving over Monarch Pass. The convective clouds looked similar to but weaker than summertime thunderstorm clouds.

The next significant storm will arrive on Tuesday afternoon and last through about midnight Tuesday night. Snow will first start in the mountains north of I-70 by around noon, and then will move south and east through midnight. About 3-6 inches will fall for many areas favored by west and northwest winds, with perhaps double digits in some higher-elevation areas along and north of I-70. Wednesday morning will likely offer some fresh turns. See the detailed snow forecast for each mountain here: http://opsw.co/CO1-5

Forecasted snow for the Tuesday night storm by the high resolution NAM model. Source: CAIC

Wednesday and Thursday will likely be dry in the wake of the Tuesday night storm, then the next system will move through from late Thursday night through Friday. This storm has the potential to bring 4-8 inches to many areas, making Friday a fun powder day. There's a chance a few mountains might also see enough snow on Friday night to provide additional powder turns on Saturday morning.

The sun will likely come out by midday Saturday, and the weekend will be sunny and warm.

Long Range:

Storms will track across the northern half of the US next week (March 10-14), and one or two of these will likely move far enough south to hit the northern half of Colorado with snow. One storm might bring snow around Tuesday/Wednesday (March 11-12), and another might bring flakes on Friday/Saturday (March 14-15).

JOEL GRATZ

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