Friday was an interesting day. Snow showers fell as expected with up to 5-7 inches of accumulation across the northern and central mountains. The surprise for me on Friday was at Monarch and Crested Butte where 5-6 inches of snow fell during the day. These mountains get the most snow with a wind from the west-southwest, but the forecast on Friday was for winds from the west or west-northwest. Well, it turned out that the wind direction across the northern mountains was from the west-northwest, but the wind direction across the central mountains was from the west-southwest, which explains this upside surprise.

Friday night was supposed to deliver a few additional inches of snow between about 4 pm and midnight as the final wave of storm energy tracked across Colorado. While this mostly came to fruition, there was an upside surprise at Loveland with 6 inches on Friday night and a large upside surprise at Winter Park with 9 inches on Friday night. The additional snow around Summit County (including Loveland) wasn't an amazing surprise as Summit can be favored with a wind from the west and west-northwest, but the surprise at Winter Park was a true surprise as their favored wind direction is from the northwest and north-northwest instead of west-northwest. I just checked the actual wind measurements at Berthoud Pass and saw that their wind direction DID swing around to blow from the northwest and north-northwest on Friday night which was not well forecast and likely contributed to them getting the upside surprise.

Storm Total Snowfall

Below are the storm's total snow amount, with the first number showing Thursday morning to Friday morning and the second number showing Friday morning to Saturday morning.

Northern Mountains

16” Winter Park (5+11)
14” Loveland (4+10)
14” Steamboat (5+9)
13” Breckenridge (7+6)
12” Copper (6+6)
11” Keystone (4+7)
9” A-Basin (3+6)
7” Cooper (4+3)
6” Vail (4+2)
5” Beaver Creek (4+1)
5” Eldora (3+2)

Central Mountains

15” Sunlight (10+5)
10” Crested Butte (3+7)
10” Monarch (5+5)
9” Aspen Highlands (6+3)
8” Powderhorn (5+3)
6” Aspen Mountain (6+0)
5” Snowmass (5+0)
3” Buttermilk (3+0)

Southern Mountains

10” Wolf Creek (8+2)
8” Silverton (8+0)
7” Telluride (5+2)
5” Purgatory (4+1)

Most of the higher snow totals in the northern mountains were at places where we expected the deeper totals, around Steamboat and Summit County. In the central mountains, I was surprised by the higher amounts around Sunlight (luck) and Crested Butte and Monarch (surprisingly favorable wind direction).

Saturday, Sunday, and Monday

These three days will be mostly sunny and dry with a high temperature in the 30s.

On Saturday, there will be powder from the snow on Friday night. Get after it quickly before the April sunshine turns it to mush.

On Sunday and Monday, the far northern mountains near and north of Steamboat may see some showers, though most of these showers will stay in Wyoming.

Next storm on Tuesday & Wednesday

The next storm be similar to the last one with a strong system tracking directly across Colorado and strengthening to the east of Colorado. We will likely see a period of intense snow later on Monday afternoon and Monday night, there will be powder on Tuesday morning, and snow showers will continue all day on Tuesday and through Tuesday night so there will likely be more powder on Wednesday. 

On Tuesday, temperatures may be colder than we'd want, which would mean less moisture in the atmosphere and lower snow totals. However, storm energy will be stronger than the previous storm, and this may somewhat offset the downside of cold temperatures and low moisture.

An early look at the multi-model total precipitation forecast shows somewhere in the neighborhood of 8-16 inches of snow for many central and northern mountains. This could be enough to cover up the firm base and create soft powder either sometime on Tuesday midday or afternoon or into Wednesday morning.

Looking ahead, I think that the storm from April 4-5 might be the final significant snowstorm of the foreseeable future. After that, we could see some snow showers linger into Thursday, April 6, then we will likely trend toward dry and warmer weather from about April 8 through at least the middle of the following week.

The graphic below, showing 51 versions of the European forecast model, offers low chances for additional snow during the April 6-14 window, and chances are high that any potential storms during this window will stay to our south and/or our north. It appears that the higher chance for our next storm will be sometime around April 15 or later.

With an average to well above average snowpack, we'll be skiing and riding for a long time this spring, though, after the storm on April 4-5, the dry and warm weather will likely begin a flatlining and melting of our snowpack.

Thanks for reading!

Joel Gratz

Geography Key

Northern Mountains
Steamboat, Bluebird Backcountry, Granby, Beaver Creek, Vail, Ski Cooper, Copper, Breckenridge, Keystone, Loveland, Arapahoe Basin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass, Eldora, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Along the Divide
Loveland, Arapahoe Basin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass

East of the Divide
Eldora, Echo, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Central Mountains
Aspen, Sunlight, Monarch, Crested Butte, Irwin, Powderhorn

Southern Mountains
Telluride, Silverton – north side of the southern mountains | Purgatory, Wolf Creek – south side of the southern mountains