Our dry stretch will soon come to an end, at least for the Pyrenees and western Alps, as a weak storm moves through the region Friday night through Sunday. Some minor high-elevation accumulations are possible, especially in the Pyrenees, but overall, the impacts are not too significant. Late on Monday night, a stronger storm will arrive with moderate to heavy snow that will last through Thursday or perhaps longer. 

The first weak system will bring rain and high elevation snow to the Pyrenees, with accumulations in the 5 - 15 cm range. As this storm drops south into Spain, it will bring some light rain and snow to the Alps as well, primarily in France. Here, the northern French Alps could see similar totals in the 5- 15 cm range, and with southerly winds into the southern Alps, some of the Swiss Alps could see up to 15 cm as well. The latest snow forecast from the WRF high resolution model is shown below.

We should see a quick break on Monday before the next system arrives late Monday night. This storm is a bit stronger and will be accompanied by a cold front that will cross the Alps Tuesday night through Wednesday. A secondary cold front should move through later in the week bringing even colder temperatures. This cold front will accompany a second storm splitting off the parent low later in the week. 

Below you can see how the upper-level pattern plays out next week.

At the end of the GIF, you can see a third small area of low pressure tracking to the north of the eastern Alps. This could keep some snow going in the eastern Alps through the latter part of next week. The two systems dropping south through France, west of the Alps, will bring a period of west/northwest winds as they approach the Alps but will quickly transition to south/south-southwest winds as they move into the Mediterranean. The greatest potential impacts with this setup will be in the southern Alps, specifically in Italy and Austria, as these southerly winds will bring moist Mediterranean air up against the mountains. 

Here is an early look at snow totals by the end of next week. Snow totals in the Italian Alps and southern Austrian Alps could wind up in the .5 - 1 m range. 

The models are still working out some of the details for this active period so we will fine tune the forecast in the coming days. 

The following week, in the first few days of March, the models show an anomalously strong upper-level low developing over northwest Europe. This system should start making its way southeast midweek, bringing the potential for more snow. The models disagree on how far south this low pressure will get. At least one model has this system tracking into the Alps, which could result in a more significant storm. Something to watch.

My next post will be on Saturday.

Thanks for reading the Europe Daily Snow!

Luke Stone
Forecaster, OpenSnow

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