Europe Daily Snow

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By Luke Stone, Forecaster Posted 2 months ago December 9, 2023

Three More Storms, and Then A Break

Summary

Another pow day is on tap for Saturday, with the deepest snow in the southern French Alps. Three more storms are on track in this latest storm cycle, trending warmer each round. Finally, a more pronounced break is possible mid-month.

Short Term Forecast

The models have remained fairly consistent over the last twenty-four hours, so today’s post will just be a brief synopsis of the timeline and totals. 

Storm #2:

Timing: Saturday afternoon (France) to Sunday evening (Austria)

Snow levels:

France: 1400 - 1800m

Switzerland: 12000 - 1300m

Austria: 1100 - 1300m

Snow Totals:

France:

1800 - 2100m: 10 - 20 cms

2100 - 2400m: 15 - 30 cms

> 2400m 20 - 40 + cms

Switzerland:

1800 - 2100m: 10 - 20 cms

2100 - 2400m: 15 - 30 cms

> 2400m 20 - 40 + cms

Austria: 

1200 - 1500m: 10 - 20 cms

1500 - 1800: 15 - 30 cms

> 1800 20 - 40 + cms

Below is the latest snow forecast from the European model.

All in all, the best powder day in this cycle will likely be in western Austria on Sunday. Snow from this storm winds down Sunday morning in the western Alps and Sunday evening in the eastern Alps. 

Storm #3 will be here as just storm #2 is winding down in Austria. Although there’s more moisture overall with this one, higher snow levels will result in similar snow totals. Snow levels will be 300 - 450 m higher than the previous storm, on average. Mid and especially upper mountain totals will be deep, with snow and rain continuing through Tuesday morning/midday. 

Finally, storm #4 is expected from Tuesday night through Thursday. Snow levels will start high and gradually lower through the storm as a cold front approaches from the north. By Wednesday night snow levels should be close to base elevations with snow continuing through Thursday morning. The latest guidance suggests 10 - 30 cms at mid and upper elevations from this storm. 

I will have more details on these last two storms in the next post. 

Extended Forecast

In the long-range, we may finally see a break in the action. The models show a strong ridge developing over Western Europe around mid-month. It’s too early to say how long this feature will stick around. Below is the average upper-level pattern for the five days ending December 20th. You can see a large and strong ridge over the northeast Atlantic. This would send the storm track over the Alps and Pyrenees and into Georgia. We saw this pattern showing up several weeks ago, prior to a cold and deep storm cycle over the Austrian Alps. If the ridge trends farther west, the storm track could once again favor the Austrian Alps. We will have to watch this closely.



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About Our Forecaster

Luke Stone

Forecaster

Luke Stone earned his M.S. in Atmospheric Sciences from the University of Utah, with a research focus on seasonal forecasting. Luke has scored deep days around the world, including coast-to-coast across the United States, Canada, and Europe.

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