Only a trace of snow to report on Saturday morning as the main wave of snow showers impacted northern portions of the Tetons with 2 inches reported at Grand Targhee and at Surprise Lake in Grand Teton NP. The next storm will bring 2-5 inches of snow to JH on Sunday afternoon/Sunday night. After that, the next chance of snow will be next Sat, Jan 23rd with additional chances from Jan 26-31st.
Short Term Forecast
Lingering low/mid level clouds will quickly clear out on Saturday morning with sunny skies for the rest of the day and high temperatures in the low 20s above mid-mountain.
The next storm will approach from the northwest on Sunday with snow arriving during the afternoon and continuing through Sunday night. This will not be a strong storm, but models are at least coming into better agreement.
I'll stick with a forecast of 2-5 inches of snow from Sunday afternoon through Monday morning. Most of this snow will fall after lifts close on Sunday, so plan on heading out Monday morning to enjoy some fresh turns.
Mostly cloudy skies and colder temperatures will prevail on Monday with additional flurries possible through the day, but additional accumulations will be minimal.
After that, we're going to dry out again for a few days as the mid-week storm continues to trend weaker and farther east and now looks like it may miss Jackson Hole entirely. There's a chance we could see light snow showers or flurries Wednesday night/Thursday morning, but I'm not counting on it at this point.
In the 7-10 day range, attention turns to a possible storm next Saturday, January 23rd. Confidence is low in how this may play out for Jackson as the storm is projected to split west of here, and when exactly the split occurs and where the northern and southern pieces of energy track in relation to Jackson are uncertain.
Depending on how the details work out, this could be a respectable snow event for Jackson, or the split could lead to moisture/energy and snowfall missing us almost entirely.
After the 23rd, the storm track will shift west and south of the Tetons for a few days, meaning we'll be back into a waiting game once again.
However, the 10-15 day range continues to look more favorable with each ensuing model run as the storm track is expected to lift north a bit and become more progressive, which could lead to stronger and more frequent storms from January 26th-31st.
This January dry spell is starting to do a number on our snowpack relative to average. We're now down to 89% of average snowpack, which isn't awful, but that value will continue to go down over the next 7-10 days until we get into a pattern of more consistent snowfall.
Hopefully, the pattern projected for late January comes to fruition and we can see more consistent storms heading into February as well – long-range signals for February are actually looking favorable, but we've been burned by the 15+ day outlooks before.
A bit of perspective – the only year in the last 5 years that had a lower snow depth on January 16th was in 2019 (mostly due to a dry Dec, skiing conditions were better in Jan of that year), but we ended up breaking a record for February snowfall that year with 200 inches. So things can always change for the better.
Thanks for reading and check back each morning for daily forecasts!
Snow conditions as of Saturday morning:
New Snow – Past 24 Hours:
* Trace (Upper Mountain), Trace since lifts closed
* Trace (Mid Mountain)
* Trace (Base Area)
New Snow – Past 48 Hours:
* Trace (Upper Mountain)
* Trace (Mid Mountain)
* Trace (Base Area)
* 62-63" Upper Mountain (9,580 ft.)
* 49" Mid Mountain (8,180 ft.)
* 19" Base Area (6,510 ft.)
* Lifts Open – 13 / 13
* Trails Open – 108 / 133
* Latest Update
Snowpack compared to 1974-2020 average:
* 89% of average
OpenSnow Forecast Data Update
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