The Mid-Atlantic Daily Snow  

Summary:

Don’t sweat the thaw. Winter is about to return

To be honest, we can’t expect to have bitterly cold temperatures all winter. Although we have had quite a stretch so far, and more is on the way. Consider this weekend to be spring skiing/boarding conditions (preview). The next cold front and wave of arctic air is about to set upon the Mid Atlantic.

What is more important to you? Holding the cold, which is great for snow making on the mountains, or trying to squeeze out natural flakes. In a perfect world we would have both.  Next week, we may get teased or lucky. There is a chance for a few snow makers but not all will be treated equally.

Details:

This weekend:

Here is a look at the Hi-Resolution NAM Model comparing afternoon temperatures Saturday with lows Monday morning as the cold air returns. The reference point of Baltimore is for the urban dwellers, but you can see temps should peak in the 40s on the mountains

Next Week:

There are two systems with the potential to drop snow.

Sunday night/Monday morning: Here is the Canadian GEM Model showing a wave along the next cold front. This should bring some light snow into WV, western MD, and southern PA. This will mark the arrival of winter’s return.

Wednesday: This had looked like a much more impressive system in previous model runs. It is possible that we are in the model gray area where systems get lost during the transition of calculations and data. The Canadian Model here shows the primary Low staying south but stretching snow into the high country of WV in the morning. It is still a little early to call how this will play out, and one of the reasons I don’t like to jump on storms too early. Definitely something to watch.

Polar Vortex2?

There has been a lot of buzz about a return of the famed Polar Vortex.  Here is a look at the GFS outlook for the location of said Vortex. The core of the cold air appears to stay in northeastern Canada, but a part of it will swing close to the northern New England border. The main issue here is that we will have a cold pattern, but with the location of the core and a higher sun angle than early January, this will not be as potent as the last blast. It is still promising for extending the life of our epic snow season. That means highs in the ski areas will be in the teens to low 20s, with lows in the single digits or colder at least for a few days at the end of next week.

Faith-in-the-Flakes*

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Summary:

Adding to the epic snow!

How can it get any better? After 15”-25” of snow across our region from the recent BEAST of a storm on Feb. 13^th, we have a few more hits on the way.

We truly have been spoiled since opening in record fashion the day after Thanksgiving. Rather than question this gift, look at it as making up for the past 3 winters. Although it was plenty cold last winter, it just didn’t have all the natural snow.

We have two shots in the short term before an unavoidable warm up for the second half of the workweek.

Details:

Sunday: An upper level disturbance will be riding the fast winds and bring a burst of snow showers worth a few inches in the ski areas of western PA, MD, and West Virginia. This may also bring a dusting to an inch.  That is just icing on the cake… Or is it.

Here is the High Resolution Rapid Update for 4PM Sunday

The next system is interesting. It will be passing to our north, and redeveloping across southeast PA. This will be part of a pattern changer followed by a warm up for a few days.  While the surface will be cold enough, and most will fall at night, the warm air aloft could produce some heavier bands of snow.

Closer Look:

This is a NWS product for at least 1 inch of snow. I have highlighted my first bet on snow totals. This should produce 2-4 inches across much of PA and western MD. There is upside potential if we end up with convective (thundersnow) thanks to that warm air aloft.

Beyond: It will get warm. Spring skiing conditions can be expected on Thursday as temps might get into the 50s or near 60°F. There is plenty of snow on the mountain to generate it’s own cold air, so with proper grooming the snow will be soft and not slushy.

That said, there will be a chance of rain. I’d rather avoid the discussion of underdeveloped flakes for now and focus on the good stuff through Tuesday.

Faith-in-the-Flakes*

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If you have a kid who loves the weather, check out my Kid Weather App that I made with my oldest son. It’s won a Parents Choice Award, been featured many times by iTunes, and even on Mashable’s Top 10 Apps to get kids interested in science. We are available for Apple and Android devices.

Summary:

Beast in the east! Biggest storm in 4 years keeps the EPIC coditions alive

The storm moving up the east coast will be the largest event since the second of two blizzards in February 2010. Initially the hype was for the big cities, and still appears to be. We are due. Being based around Baltimore I have stats focused on the city, but as you can see, a major east coast storm is expected every 3-4 years, and it’s been that long.  The developments in the past day or so seem to benefit the mountains even more. Well some of the mountains.

Details:

At this point the storm is upon us. The main issue is how much. The Low Pressure system will crawl along the east coast and appear to stall. That is when it will crank up and turn into the winter hurricane it’s expected to be. The pressure level will drop below 970 mb off of the NJ coast, which is equivalent to a Category 2 Hurricane. The wind structure is not the same, but it will still generate near blizzard conditions in some places.

The good news is that most mountains stay all snow. That might be a mix with sleet for a few hours at Roundtop and the Poconos, but there will be enough snow before and after to compensate for that.

Closer Look:

It is an easy call for southern PA: A foot or more!

Poconos: Perhaps a foot as well.

Western PA/MD/West Virginia: 6-12 inches

Virginia along Skyline Drive: These areas could reach 12-18 inches in the sweet spot!

Here is a look at NWS 75% for snowfall. This is a little above their forecast, but most storms have over achieved all winter… why should this be any different.

Here is a look at the Canadian GEM Model. The purpose for this is the see how the storm will evolve. Notice the stall, and then second surge of heavy snow in blue Thursday evening. This may benefit eastern zones better, but still an impressive little bugger.

There will be a clipper that follows this event that could drop 2-4 inches on the southern mountains, missing the Poconos.

Faith-in-the-Flakes*

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Kid Weather App

If you have a kid who loves the weather, check out my Kid Weather App that I made with my oldest son. It’s won a Parents Choice Award, been featured many times by iTunes, and even on Mashable’s Top 10 Apps to get kids interested in science. We are available for Apple and Android devices.

Summary:

Fresh snow and more to go… Maybe

The clipper that passed through on Sunday brought some fresh powder to Mid Atlantic ski areas. It was powder, as temps dropped into the low 20s and teens.  The weekend snow reports ranged from 1-3 inches across southern PA, but 6-8 inches in western PA and Maryland.  The Poconos didn’t seem to report much.

Details:

Another storm on the way but the question is what will it do. There is good agreement that we will have a strong Nor’easter Wednesday night into Thursday morning. The comparison here shows three potential scenarios and a light adjustment could make a big difference.

NAM: Farthest west is closest and most beneficial to the ski areas, while bringing rain into the I-95 cities.

Canadian: Middle of the road. This depiction brings the most snow to the western suburbs of the cities, but could skimp on the western ski areas. But this looks good for most, even the Poconos. I want to point out that the moisture associated with this type of storm would likely expand farther west than shown here, but still keeping the big stuff east.

GFS: This is the model NWS and many local forecasters use. This attempts to keep a weaker storm farther off the coast That may be why you don’t see much on you local forecasts yet, but I expect that will change as each model run is bringing it closer.

Closer Look:

Here is a more detailed view of how these models see the event.  Keep in mind the timing and location will adjust a little. Also, it is too early to call how much. While we have a snow model, it is a rough gauge. Realistic snow amounts can’t  be given until less than 48 hours from an event starting.

This will be another active week, so we have something to lock in on and watch. Check back for more in a bit.

Faith-in-the-Flakes*

Also keep up to date via

Facebook: Justin Berk, Meteorologist

Twitter @JustinWeather

Instagram: justinweather

Kid Weather App

If you have a kid who loves the weather, check out my Kid Weather App that I made with my oldest son. It’s won a Parents Choice Award, been featured many times by iTunes, and even on Mashable’s Top 10 Apps to get kids interested in science. We are available for Apple and Android devices.

Summary:

Prime time and looking fine

Heading into the second weekend of February and we could not ask for a better set up. Sure we could always try for more snow, but considering how much we have had already, plus the duration of the cold. We should be happy. Beggers can’t be choosers, and often the eastern US has to pay the price for long duration cold with a building thaw.

That is not the case. Perhaps the Groundhog was right?

Details:

Weekend Systems

I don’t want to add any more credibility to the bad rumor that started 10 days ago, but this was the time for a storm many of you heard about.  However it is not to be as the multiple parts just won’t come together. Instead one storm will pass off the Virginia Coast on Saturday. Sunday appears to show a delayed arrival of a clipper farther south. That could bring more snow into our region, and metro areas as well into Monday morning.

Here is a look at the total potential moisture from the Hi-Resolution NAM model. Translated into snow…

The good news is that being caught in between will produce an extended period of flurries and snow showers.

The weekend outlook brings 1-3 inches to the ski areas but Sunday evening, but more falling Sunday night.

Sunday Night/Monday Morning Clipper 

Long Range:

There has been an indication that a coastal storm would try to develop Wednesday night into Thursday. The benefit of the pattern collapsing on the western US and bringing needed moisture to California has thrown our outlook off. However a strong coastal storm could be in the offing. The problem is how large and far reaching the snow might be. It is too early to pin down, but optimistic that we have more in store.

Faith-in-the-Flakes*

Also keep up to date via

Facebook: Justin Berk, Meteorologist

Twitter @JustinWeather

Instagram: justinweather

Kid Weather App

If you have a kid who loves the weather, check out my Kid Weather App that I made with my oldest son. It’s won a Parents Choice Award, been featured many times by iTunes, and even on Mashable’s Top 10 Apps to get kids interested in science. We are available for Apple and Android devices.