West of the Continental Divide:
 
Below: Clouds have quickly moved in across NW Montana at Whitefish on Friday afternoon. 

A high-pressure ridge over Western Montana gets bumped by a shortwave low-pressure system eschewed by a deepening trough along the west coast on Friday night. Best chances for decent snowfall by first chair Saturday morning, in the 2 – 4” range, are at Lookout Pass, with 1 – 3” possible at Whitefish and Snowbowl. This is a warm storm but snow levels look to remain below base lodge levels. Elsewhere on Saturday, mainly cloudy with isolated flurries. Upper-mountain high temps in the upper 20’s to low 30’s across the region Saturday. Breezy, with moderate W/SW winds. 

Zonal flow aloft will transport another weak system into the region early on Sunday. This system will mainly favor locations along the Idaho border bringing light accumulations of 1 – 3” through the day at Lookout Pass. Elsewhere across the westside, Snowbowl could see a trace to an inch.  Generally, Sunday will be mainly cloudy with some isolated flurries with slight chances of trace amounts. Upper-mountain high temps on Sunday will range from 26F for areas/resorts north of I-90 and 32F for those along and south of I-90. 

As the central trough of low pressure moves eastward from the Pacific coast, another wave moves generally south of the region on Sunday night into Monday with the northern fringe of the system looking to bring light accumulations in the 1 – 3” range possible for Lookout Pass, Montana Snowbowl, and Discovery through Monday. Slightly less chances of a trace to an inch at Whitefish. Daytime temps on Monday will be similar to Sunday, generally just above seasonal averages. 
For Tuesday and Wednesday, continued mild temps with unsettled skies and daily light accumulations (1 – 2”) look likely across West Central (Lookout, Snowbowl, Disco) and NW Montana (Whitefish) locations. This period still has a few question marks in the forecast, and possibly higher amounts may be possible. Stay tuned.     

East of the Continental Divide:

Below: Clouds are moving in Friday afternoon at Big Sky. Only accumulations look likely Friday night.

 

A shortwave low-pressure system looks to weaken considerably as it moves over the Divide late Friday night, but slim chances of trace accumulations remain for mainly Big Sky. A transient ridge of high-pressure builds on Saturday delivering a generally cloudy day with some sunny spells widespread across the region. Expect some gusty SW winds to 40 mph along normally wind exposed ridges as passes. Continued mild on Saturday with upper-mountain highs of 24 – 30F. 

For Sunday morning, the ridge hangs on across the region with increasing clouds by noon and snow showers developing across mainly SW Montana (Big Sky/Bridger Bowl) with trace accumulations to an inch possible by last chair. Elsewhere across the eastside, mainly cloudy with afternoon flurries and no accumulations likely. Continued mild, with upper mountain temps 24 to 27F. Light to moderate SW winds. 

Periods of heavy snow develop across SW Montana Sunday night as a deepening trough moves eastward. Big Sky, which has been in the storm track crosshairs this season, once again has the highest chances (90%) of picking up 4 – 6” by Monday morning. Bridger Bowl also has good chances of 1 – 3” overnight Sunday. Red Lodge may see a few isolated flurries, but no accumulations are likely. 

Lingering snow showers on Monday morning could add another inch or two at Big Sky and Bridger. Cooler Monday as a NW flow develops over the Northern Rockies with highs at 8000’ of 18F to 24F. Light to moderate west winds. 

Tuesday and Wednesday, while not in full consensus, weather models are favoring a return of high-pressure east of the Divide with generally benign weather. Upper mountain temps look to rise again into the slightly above average range both days.  

Below: The National Blend (NBM) tends to be a bit high with snow totals but it does give us a general idea of where the heaviest snowfall is most likely. West Central/NW Montana (Lookout Pass, Snowbowl, Disco, Whitefish) looks to benefit Friday PM into Saturday, with SW Montana (Big Sky, Bridger Bowl) in best position Sunday PM into Monday.  

 

West and East of the Continental Divide: 

A bit of uncertainty remains for the forecast Wednesday through next weekend. Best chances for accumulating snowfall are on Wednesday 2/8 and Thursday 2/9. West of the Divide looks favored at this point but accumulating snow also shows up across SW Montana east of the Divide. Let’s revisit this on my next forecast on Sunday afternoon.   

Below: Here's what the plethora of models at the National Weather Service has concluded for the extended 8 - 14 Day trend. Temps look to stay fairly benign with a continued outlook of weak Pacific systems bringing light accumulations across the region. 

 

Thanks for reading, my next update will be next month on Sunday, 2/5.  

Powder Out – 

Bob