New England Daily Snow

Rain today, snow later this week

Summary

Rain on Monday will give way to cooler temperatures and some upslope snows on Tuesday. A couple of weak storms will cross over the region of on Wednesday and Friday with more snow possible. Rain returns for Saturday.

Short Term Forecast

Warm air has pushed across central New England changing snow and mixed precipitation over to rain on Monday morning. Snow is hanging on over Maine, for now. Many resorts across New England have opted to stay closed this Monday due to inclement weather -- and rightfully so, rain on snow, fog, and soon high winds will all be in play.

Monday's early morning slop is driven by the warm front of a storm moving into Southeast Canada. Rain showers should persist through the day as the region enters the storm's warm sector with temperatures pushing through the 40s in the North Country and to 60F in southern New England. More rain is on tap for this evening as the cold front blasts through, an outside chance at a thunderstorm, a quick transition back over to snow, and likely a flash freeze -- things will be crusty in the morning. The NAM model forecast takes us from 7AM Monday through 7AM Tuesday below:

After an initial blast of colder air and wind, the weather settles down for Tuesday as high pressure builds into the region. Snow showers will likely hang on over the southern Green mountains as some lake effect moisture gets dragged across New York State. Probably looking at little to no accumulation.

The storm we were watching for Wednesday is a huge disappointment. The models have trended farther south over time with a slightly less amplified flow over North America. The GFS is trying to give us some hope, but the EMCWF has largely written it off:

The storm is likely to produce at least some accumulating snow across southern New England, but is almost a non-event across the North Country as we head into Thursday. The next shot at snow is Friday as a weak upper-level system crosses the region. Nothing to get too excited about, but hey, it's something:

Over the course of the week into Friday, the region is looking at ~3-7" of snow spread across some upslope into Tuesday, light snow south on Wednesday, and light snow north on Friday:

Extended Forecast

If you're disappointed by the rain on Monday, then you'll be doubly disappointed at the extended-range forecast for Saturday. The regime change out west to a cooler and wetter pattern (they've been record-breaking warm and dry as of late) will drive warmth into eastern North America with a storm track primarily to our West. The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) is calling for both warmer than normal temperatures and slightly above normal precipitation. 

Keep in mind that even though a 5-day period may be above average, it doesn't mean that there can't be a couple days of cold mixed in with a few really warm days. The warmth above is driven by Saturday as another storm will track through the Great Lakes and into Southeast Canada. That's a really warm day with rain followed by some upslope snow into Sunday. Next week looks drier with highs sitting in the upper 20s and lower 30s slope side and near 40F in the foothills. The ECMWF ensemble captures this sentiment:

 

The New England Daily Snow will return on Wednesday.

-Dr. Jay

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