The New England Daily Snow  

Summary

Any small chance there was for a significant storm this weekend is now completely gone. However, there will still be a weak storm that moves through Saturday night, only bringing accumulating snow to the high elevations. A quick moving Clipper system will move through early next week and could bring some widespread snowfall to the region, albeit on the light side for sure. Then later next week, I'm still keeping my eye on the possibility of a bigger coastal storm.

Details

The phasing needed for a big storm this weekend just isn't going to happen. Not that I've had any confidence at all that it would for the last several days, but it never hurts to hold out hope. The southern piece of energy is moving through the Carolinas and southern Mid-Atlantic right now, and then because of the lack of phasing with the weak northern storm that is lagging behind, the coastal system will head out to sea. It's not all bad news though, as that weak northern storm will eventually move through Saturday evening and into the night. There won't be any widespread snowfall from this one, but the high elevation resorts in the north will likely get at least 1-3 inches of new snow.

A Clipper system is now showing up in the forecasting models for early next week. As is typical of these systems, it will be quick moving and fairly weak, but at the same time looks as though it has potential to bring some light accumulating snowfall to a relatively large area. I do mean light though, with generally 1-3 inches falling, or perhaps a small area of 2-4 inch accumulations. Also, the typical high elevations will likely see higher snowfall totals, with up to 6 inches at those resorts.

Long Range

The storm that I mentioned in my last post is still definitely one to keep an eye on, especially with today's runs of the forecasting models trending towards a pretty significant coastal storm around the middle of next week. As always when we're roughly a week out from an event like this, lots can and will change between now and then. For right now, let's hope that we can at least start to see some consistency from the model runs from day to day.

Summary

Head for the hills! Well, actually the mountains...and the biggest ones at that. Some of the only accumulating snowfall that New England is likely to see this week will come tonight into Wednesday as a weak storm moves through. Anything more than a coating or so will only fall in the high elevations in the north where up to 4 inches will accumulate by the time things taper by Wednesday afternoon. The potential storm for the end of the week is looking less likely with each passing day, but (potentially) on the bright side, temperatures are looking more seasonable by the weekend.

Details

A weak storm will move in tonight and stick around through most of the day tomorrow. The place to be for this one will be the higher elevation resorts in the north. These resorts are the only places that will see more than a coating to an inch, with up to 4 inches falling. The resorts that are most likely to see the highest amounts include Jay, Stowe, and Mad River. Getting in on the snow, but not likely to see as much are Sugarbush, Whiteface, Bretton Woods, Wildcat, and Saddelback.

The potential for a more significant storm later in the week is looking less and less likely at this point. In fact, my chances of anything widespread is so low that I'm willing to rule it out at this point. Bascially, there just isn't the "phasing" happening that would need to for a stronger storm. This just means that the weak storm coming out of the north isn't going to interact with the stronger storm from the south to form a coastal system that gives us the goods. There is however still an opportunity for the higher elevations to pick up a few more inches sometime around Saturday as the weaker northern feature moves through.

Long Range

The only good news I have in the long range (and it's only good news for some people) is that temperatures will become much more seasonable by the weekend. Look for highs in the mid to upper 30's in the north, with 40's in the south. Don't get too used to it though, as some cooler air moves back in for early next week, but not as cold as it has been.

Otherwise, the next system to keep an eye on is for around Tuesday of next week. However, as of right now, the models aren't showing the phasing needed to create a good storm in this case either.

Summary

The storm that is currently dropping heavy snow on the Mid-Atlantic will unfortunately stay too far south to bring any appreciable accumulations to New England. There may be a few snow showers that make it into New England, but nothing serious. Also, there could be some snow showers at the high elevation resorts in northern New England. The best chance at any signficant snow through the coming week will come during the latter half of the week, although at this moment that chance doesn't look too good. Otherwise, the best place to be this week will be the higher elevation resorts in northern New England.

Details

Unfortunately, the storm that looked like it could bring a decent snowfall to at least southern New England a couple days ago has trended further and fruther south. The track has trended so far south that there is very little chance that any part of the region sees any accumulating snow. At best, southern New England could see some snow showers that may drop a coating at most.

Looking forward, the next chance for snow comes around the middle of the week when a weak Alberta Clipper system swings through. This will likely be very similar to the weak storms that came through last week, where snow showers brough a coating to an inch or two to scattered resorts, and the only locations that will see any significant accumulations are the higher elevation resorts in the north.

Long Range

The next chance for anything significant will come toward the end of the week. Right at this moment, it doesn't appear that things are going to come together in time or in the right place for any widespread significant snowfall. However, even in this scneario there will still enough moisture brought in to set off snow showers at the high elevations.

So here's the bottom line for this week. Considering the amount of snow that fell at the high elevations resorts last week, and the way things look this week, if you want fresh snow head to the higher elevations in northern New England!

Summary

One more weak storm is still on schedule for Saturday night into Sunday morning. Generally only the northern portion of New England will see any snowfall though, with a spotty coating to a couple of inches. Higher elevation resorts will defiinitely see 1-3 inches though, with the possibility for up to 6 inches. Looking at the storm for early next week, it's looking more and more like this will be a storm for southern New England, with MA resorts seeing the biggest accumulations of around 3-6 inches, with the possibility for more at any resorts in the extreme south of the region. Anywhere north of central VT and NH will likely see nothing of any significance, unfortunately.

Details

We have one last weak storm still on schedule for a Saturday night arrival. This will bring another round of snow showers, but only really for resorts in central VT and NH northward. Most resorts will see a coating to an couple inches at best, and these accumulations will be spotty depending on where the snow showers and snow squalls set up. Your best bet for any definitive accumulations will once again the be the high elevation resorts...Jay, Stowe, Cannon, Bretton Woods, Saddelback, etc. At these resorts, expected an assured 1-3 with the possibility of up to 6 inches, especially in northern VT.

The picture for the storm for early next week is starting to become a little more clear, but unfortunately that picture isn't so great for most of the major resorts in the region. At this point, it's becoming more and more likely that the storm will stay too far south to bring any significant accumulations north of MA, and it's a pretty safe bet at this point that the northern reaches of the region will see nothing at all, while southern and central VT and NH may see 1-3 inches at best. The winners from this storm will be in MA, where generally 3-6 inches will fall, with the possiblity of higher amounts the further south you go. There is still certainly time for this forecast to change, but with the consistency the models have shown over the last 24 hours and a Sunday night/Monday arrival time, it's not looking like things will change dramatically from this forecast.

Long Range

After the early week storm passes, Canadian high pressure will build in over the region and keep things pretty quiet and quite cold. High temperatures will generally be quite a bit below average for early March. The next chance we have for a storm will come later next week. A significant coastal storm is starting to show up in the long range models, and although right now it is tracking too far offshore to bring us much snow, this is certainly a storm that I'll be keeping a close eye on.

Summary

The second of three weak Clipper storms will make its way through New England Thursday night. This storm will bring more snow showers to the region with with spotty accumulations of a coating to a couple of inches, with the higher elevation northern resorts seeing the higher end of that range. The third weak storm is still scheduled to move through over the weekend, with more snow showers Saturday night into Sunday. Next week continues to hold a good chance of a more significant snowfall, especially early in the week when a rather complicated and uncertain storm will unfold.

Details

Another round of snow showers and snow squalls associated with a weak Clipper system will move through Thursday night. Accumulations will be rather spotty becuase of the scattered nature of the snow showers. Even resorts that do end up seeing these showers will only get a coating to a couple of inches. The exception will be the high elevation resorts in the north, which will see at least 1-3 inches from this storm.

The last in this series of weak storms will swing through Saturday night into Sunday. More snow showers will come along with it, and another coating to a couple of inches will fall where the snow showers happen to hit. Again though, look for higher amounts at elevation.

Long Range

As I mentioned yesterday, we stand a very good chance at seeing some sort of more widespread and stronger storm around the first half of next week. Yesterday, this looked like it could be two separate storms...one early in the week and one around the middle of the week. Through the day today, that forecast has changed to show more of one drawn out storm that could last from Monday all the way into Wednesday. As is often the case, the key with this storm will be the track. There is a lot of model disagreement with the track, with some models showing a moderate to heavy snowfall for the entire region while others just show a grazing blow with only southernmost resorts seeing any heavy snowfall. I'll be sure to keep you up to date as the picture (hopefully) becomes more clear. Here's the take home point for right now though: confidence is high that there will be a decent snowfall in at least some part of the region during the first half of next week.