Summary
Our first warmer storm since some time in January is on the way for Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Precipitation will fall mostly as snow in northern portions of the region, with ice and rain mixing in for the south. A second storm might swing through later in the week, but also may stay too far south. Otherwise, we will see a return of colder air in the wake of this the Tuesday night storm.
Details
It's been quite some time since I've had to talk about anything but snow falling in our region. In fact, it's been since some time in late January...something like 6 weeks or so. That's pretty incredible for New England. The streak had to end at some point though, and I'm at least happy to say that we're not looking at the worst case scenario.
The primary low will track well to our west this time which is never ideal. Thanks to some secondary development in the Gulf of Maine as well as cold air that will be stubborn to leave, northern portions of the region will see mainly snow and frozen precipitation, while southern portions start as snow with a changeover to ice and rain. This will be a quick hitter, with precipitation not moving in until well after lifts close on Tuesday and tapering off not too long after lifts spin again on Wednesday. Total snowfall amounts will be tough to measure because anything that does fall at the onset of precipitation will be compacted and even melted by the warmer, latter half of the storm. With that said, here are my thoughts on snowfall amounts:
Southern NH: 1-3" before change to rain/ice
Central and Western NH: 2-4" before mixing with sleet/freezing rain
White Mountains: 3-6", may stay all snow, but sleet/freezing rain also likely
Western Maine: 3-6", likely to stay all snow
Central Maine: 2-4" before mixing with sleet/freezing rain
Coastal Maine: 1-3" before change to rain/ice
So again, it could be worse since most resorts will still see a net gain of snow from this event. High temperatures on Wednesday will be the warmest we've seen since late January as well, so expect the new snow to stay quite wet and even melt a bit through the day.
On Thursday or Friday, a second storm has a chance of coming up the coast. As of right now, that looks unlikely with a more southern track being favored by the forecasting models that would mean we miss out on any precipitation of any significance. We'll see how that develops in the next 24 to 36 hours. Otherwise, expect colder temperatures to return on Thursday and last through the end of the week.
Long Range
Besides a return to colder temps, there's no significant storms in the long range for the coming weekend. A weak storm passing well to our north will set off some snow showers Saturday night, with any accumulations being limited to the higher terrain. Then early next week, there's the possibility of a weak Alberta Clipper storm.
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Region Definitions:
Southern NH: Crotched, McIntyre, Granite Gorge, Pat's Peak
Central and Western NH: Gunstock, Dartmouth Skiway, Ragged
White Mountains: Loon, Waterville Valley, Cannon, Bretton Woods, Attitash, Black Mountain, Wildcat, Cranmore, King Pine
Western Maine: Sunday River, Sugarloaf, Mt. Abram, Black Mountain
Central Maine: Shawnee Peak, Lost Valley, Titcomb, Eaton
Coastal Maine: Camden Snow Bowl
