On Sunday the northern mountains could pick up 1-3" of snow with cold winterlike conditions. Monday will be a cold and dry transition day to a warming trend Tuesday through Thursday. The midweek storm we have been tracking might arrive a little later than previously expected, now looking like Thursday night into Friday. The first week of April the storm track could retreat to our north.
Short Term Forecast
Happy and chilly Sunday morning to everyone!
On Sunday morning around 9 am, snow showers started to pop up in the northern mountains, but they didn't arrive in time to keep our consecutive snow streak alive which ended at 5 days.
Saturday was a deceptively cold bluebird day with bitter wind chills in the morning. But the rewards of fresh tracks and soft turns made braving the biting winds well worth the price of admission.
It has been a remarkable run of snow the last 12 days and this will cap off on Sunday with 1-3" of accumulation possible through the day.
Monday will be a dry transition day with continuing cold temperatures and strong winds. Wind gusts up to 50 mph at Taos could pose some lift delay issues in the first half of the day on Monday.
Temperatures start to warm up Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday as we say farewell to this most recent chapter of winterlike March conditions.
But we are not done with winter yet as a storm is expected to track across the Four Corners late Thursday into Friday. This is still trending as a low-end storm of 1-6" of snow for the northern mountains.
The arrival of the storm could be a day later than we have been discussing. As things stand today, Friday, March 31st would be the day for soft turns but we will hone in on the exact timing over the next few days.
After this storm, the main track could retreat to our north which would put the Land of Enchantment on the fringes of the action.
The GFS Ensemble for precipitation in the first 7 days of April shows this scenario with the concentration of better totals along the corridor to our north.
We would need a southern shift in the track to see meaningful snow.
The extended outlook shows uncertainty in the first ten days of April, but not a lot of solid signals for snow.
Thankfully, our snowpack is in a phenomenal place and we will close out the season in fine fashion even if the first week of April doesn't bring new snow.
Thanks for reading!
Considerable Avalanche Danger on Sunday. Check Taos Avalanche Center for all of your backcountry forecasts
Always consult TAC for the latest avalanche forecasts!
New Mexico Geography Key
→ Red River, Taos Ski Valley (north side of northern mountains - Sangre de Cristos)
→ Angel Fire (northeast side of northern mountains - Sangre de Cristos)
→ Sipapu (middle of the northern mountains - Sangre de Cristos)
→ Ski Santa Fe (south side of the northern mountains - Sangre de Cristos)
→ Pajarito (southwest side of the northern mountains - Jemez)
→ Sandia Peak (Sandias)
→ Mt. Taylor backcountry (San Mateos)
→ Ski Apache (Sacramentos)
→ Ski Cloudcroft (Sacramentos)