Ski Utah Daily Snow

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By Evan Thayer, Forecaster Posted 5 years ago December 18, 2018

Increasingly Active

Summary

Weak storm systems this week will gradually get stronger now thru Christmas. Snow is likely in Utah mountains.

Short Term Forecast

Yesterday we had a splitting, weak system pass thru the region.  Overcast conditions prevailed and there were a few snow showers around.  However, accumulations we minimal at best.  Only resorts reporting fresh snow this morning are 1" at Eagle Point and Sundance.  There was also a dusting of confectioners sugar reported on top of the ginger cookies I baked last night.  

Looking ahead, we have another weak system (although slightly stronger than yesterday's) that will move in tonight. Expect snow to develop by morning hours with off and on snow showers on Wednesday.  Latest 12km NAM shows a couple inches possible for the Upper Cottonwoods: 

About 2 inches....  Not a ton.  This may be slightly underdone given this model's typical bias.  Overall, I'd say Northern Utah mountains could see 1-3" by the end of the day tomorrow with 2-4" in the Cottonwoods.  Obviously not a big storm, but hopefully enough to provide for some soft turns.  

We will have a break on Thursday, then another weak, splitting system on Friday into Friday night.  This system could bring an additional few inches to the mountains of primarily northern Utah.  Again, probably not much, but perhaps enough to freshen things up for the weekend.  Here is the full ensemble plumes from the GFS: 

You can see 3 separate systems.  Wednesday, Friday/Friday night, and then late Sunday and/or Christmas Eve.  Confidence wanes as we progress.  Total accumulation, as you can see, ranges from just above 0.2" over the next week to 1.4" in the most generous ensemble.  The mean is about 0.6".    This is by no means impressive.  None of these systems look particularly strong, but they are generally trending in the right direction.  

Extended Forecast

As we head into Christmas Day next week, we will see another system move into the west coast. This is a good looking system, but unfortunately, the Euro closes it off and takes it through SoCal and Arizona. That would mean the best precipitation would be to our south on Christmas Day. Southern Utah could do alright, but probably only light precip in Northern Utah if this scenario comes to pass. The GFS is a bit more progressive with this system and moves it closer to Utah. GFS would be a better outcome for us. However, the Euro is generally more accurate, and a look at the GFS ensemble mean supports the Euro outcome more than its operational run.

After Christmas, we generally still have a storm door open, but at this point I don't see much in the way of significant storms. We are in a pattern that is generally active, but not necessarily overly snowy. Lots of weaker storms or near misses.

Evan | OpenSnow

About Our Forecaster

Evan Thayer

Forecaster

To Evan, 'The Greatest Snow on Earth' is more than just a motto - it’s a way of life. In 2010, he started Wasatch Snow Forecast as a way to share the best powder days with his fellow snow-lovers. Evan brings the same quality forecasts and weather discussions to OpenSnow and hopes you enjoy skiing/riding Utah as much as he does.

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