Ski Utah Daily Snow
By Evan Thayer, Forecaster Posted 5 years ago December 20, 2018
Giving the Gift of Powder
Summary
An increasingly active pattern is developing. A weak disturbance on Saturday with a stronger system early next week. Good chance for powder on and around Christmas Day!
Short Term Forecast
Yesterday's wave was quick and weak, but a 2-3" fell in the Cottonwoods that skied pretty well. Winds were high but the crowds were non-existent, fun day. Elsewhere, generally only an inch or so fell.
We are in a break today (Thursday). Tomorrow, we will be brushed by a wave that will clip far northern Utah. We could see a few snow showers but not much in the way of accumulation. A bit stronger system will affect northern and central Utah on Saturday. We should see periods of snow on Saturday in the mountains with a few inches possible.
The real story is a stronger trough moving in for early next week. There are still a lot of timing differences between models, and even within the same model's ensembles. So confidence in details is low, however, overall confidence in it being snowy is gaining. The initial wave could move in as early as Sunday night into Christmas Eve. This wave is stronger in the GFS than the Euro. Then there should be another wave perhaps late on Christmas Day with instability snow showers continuing Wednesday - Friday next week after the trough's passage. Here is what the GFS ensembles currently show:
I highlighted 3 distinct periods in the next week. The weak Saturday system, probably just a few inches at best. Then two potentially stronger waves, one before Christmas and one late Christmas Day into Boxing Day.
As you can see, there is still a lot of uncertainty. Snowfall totals range from 10" over the next week to 40" with a mean of about 25". The pattern that sets up later next week will be a cold one with plenty of instability showers continuing. I would not be surprised to see snow continuing, especially in favored locations. Next week should have several decent powder days.
As for snow in the valleys, the snow level will drop at some point around Christmas Day. It is far from a certainty, but there is a good chance for snow on Christmas Day. Whether that happens in the morning or late in the day is still up in the air. We will continue to monitor.
Extended Forecast
It looks like as we head toward the New Year holiday, we will gradually see a ridge of high pressure develop. At this point it looks generally dry to start 2019.
Evan | OpenSnow