Friday - Sunday 

You can see the flatline for precip below for Snow summit between today and Sunday. 

We're expecting sunny and pleasant conditions at least through Saturday. Highs will be in the upper 30's and low 40's. Winds will be light as well. Sunday the weather starts to shift a bit with slightly stronger winds out of the Southwest up to 30 MPH. A stray snow or rain shower is possible on Sunday but at this time I'm not expecting any accumulations. 

Monday - Wednesday Storm 

There's a pretty significant storm brewing out in the Pacific currently. It will feature colder air, along with a long moisture transport. We're looking at another Atmospheric River impacting the entire state of California. But, unlike the last one we could see both rain and snow impacts from this system. Could be winter's last hurrah for us? That I can't say, but I will say I'm liking the trends for this system to drop a fair amount of measurable snow for our region. 

Temps & Winds

Temps on Monday will start out warm in the mid to upper 30's if not close to 40 degrees at the lowest bases. That means the first part of the storm will be warm and raining, but by later Monday afternoon we could see a shift from rain to snow. Tuesday and Wednesday should feature all snow with temps around the freezing mark on Tuesday and even lower temps on Wednesday with highs in the 20's. 

Winds will be gusty as early as Monday afternoon out of the Southwest up to 40 MPH and Tuesday they could be even stronger up to 60 MPH. By Wednesday they could die down some. 

You can see below on the NAM 12KM graphic for 10K FT we see the colder air working in by Monday early afternoon. 

Precip Forecast 

Check out the GFS and Euro forecasts below:

Both feature precip amounts well in the 2 - 3 inch range with the Euro going up to 4+ plus inches in spots. The Euro is definitely more bullish and brings the center of the Atmospheric River further South down the coast of California. 

If that's the case we could see more rain and snow than I'm thinking we do with today's forecast. The track of this AR will be critical not only for determining our snowfall amounts, but also the timing of the cold air to change the rain to snow. 

Our snow to water ratios will start out pretty low in the 6 - 8:1 range but increase to around 10:1 during the height of the storm. 

Using an average precip range and the initial rain to snow we likely won't break 2 FT anywhere. My forecast this morning is 14 - 22 inches. I believe some of the highest amounts will be in the San Gabriel's because the orientation of this storm may have a bit of a South Southwesterly component which can really increase the orographic effect especially in places like Mt. Baldy.

I'll be fine tuning this forecast for the next several days as we get closer.  

Generally the pattern supports an active storm track into the Northern part of the state but we could see more action especially according to the European Ensembles. 

You can see how the Euro is showing something over the Friday, March 24th through Sunday the 26th time period. The GFS is less bullish and isn't nearly as confident that we see more moisture next week. Both models do suggest another weak system potentially the following week. 

Time will tell as to how this evolves. For now we have a bigger system that's going to bring us snowfall to focus on. 

Till the next one... Mike out.