Monday

Rain & showers are possible on Monday during the day. We're going to see our highest snow levels today before the arrival of the much bigger and more powerful storm by Monday night into Tuesday. 

Snow levels could approach 7,500 FT today before dropping tonight down below 7K FT. Temps will be in the 30's today and winds will be gusty up to 40 MPH out of the West Southwest. They will be increasing overnight. 

Tuesday & Wednesday Big Storm

We have a big storm that will be coming through our region starting as early as Monday night. You can see how the Precipitable Water Anomaly will be over 200% of the normal for this time of year in our region. 

Temps & Winds

Temperatures will come down on Tuesday and even more so on Wednesday. We could see low 30's at the resort levels by Tuesday and temps in the 20's by Wednesday. 

You can really see the cold air filtering in with this system by late morning Tuesday on the NAM 12KM model. 

Winds will be quite strong on Tuesday with gusts up to 70 MPH out of the South Southwest. It will be a full blizzard experience for our first day of Spring. Winds on Wednesday will be equally strong with gusts up to 50 MPH in the morning hours. 

Both days I'm sure will be very challenging to get on the mtn. with the strong winds, very heavy snowfall rates and poor visibilities. Lower mtn. lifts will likely be the only options if the resorts are open at all. 

Precip Forecast

The overall precip forecast hasn't changed too much. The GFS still shows higher amounts the Euro, but the Euro is not too far behind at this point. Both models point to total liquid amounts in the 3 - 4 inch range across the region. 

You can see the higher resolution of the WPC model really puts a bullseye into the Mt. Baldy region along with most of the Big Bear Mtns. 

If this precip forecast were to verify we'd be measuring 3 to 4 FT of snow easily. I'm as usual going to temper the expectations because temperatures will start out warmer and the South Southwesterly flow will favor place like Mt. Baldy more so than the Big Bear Region. 

My forecast is going up a bit given I have more confidence in this storm today in delivering larger amounts with the faster drop in temperatures and the ample amount of moisture. The San Gabriel's, but specifically Mt. Baldy should fare the best. My forecast for them is 25 - 38 inches of snow. Mt. High should do quite well with 21 - 32 inches of snow. The Big Bear region will be right around 23 - 34 inches of snow. Yes, all of these resorts could easily hit 3 FT of snow is some of the wetter model runs verify but I'm taking into account the March sun angle during any short breaks, along with the slightly warmer air to start out with. The top of Bear Mtn. very likely will hit 3 FT of snow and there's a good chance the upper bowls of Mt. Baldy will equally get to 3 FT, but I know they don't measure and report the snow there that high. 

We'll be tallying up this snow by Thursday morning, since this is a mutli-day storm with some of the heaviest snow coming Tuesday night. 

Thursday & Friday

These will be the dig out days. We should see mostly sunny weather both days with temps that will be quite cool for late March. Highs will be in the upper 20's and low 30's. Winds may increase a bit on Friday with gusts up to 30 MPH out of the Northwest. 

There's a chance we could see snow on Saturday as well but amounts would be very minimal. The next best shot looks to be by next Tuesday, March 28th. You can see the system showing up on the GFS Ensemble Mean below. 

The European Ensembles also support a better shot for precip during that time period but I don't see anything definite or very strong for us. 

I'll keep you posted. 

Till the next one... Mike out.