Southern California Daily Snow
By Mike Korotkin, Meteorologist Posted 2 months ago December 4, 2023
Get ready for an extended dry period. We're likely to stay dry through the middle of next week at the earliest. Temps will be mild and warm through the middle of this week before cooling off before the weekend. Over the weekend temps rise again through the middle of next week. A pattern change is likely in the middle of the month. We could finally see more action after the 15th of December...
Short Term Forecast
We're in for a dry period... Check out at least the next 5 days below:
That forecast is for Snow Summit, which is open daily. Temps are warm today through Wednesday. There's a little cool down coming Thursday and Friday, but overall the main message is we stay dry this week. And, we could stay dry for a big part of next week as well.
Winds are a little gusty on Wednesday afternoon and Thursday with 30+ MPH gusts out of the West and West-Northwest.
I wish I had more to say about our pattern this week but with the ridge over our region through the end of the week it will keep all the storms to our North in the Pacific Northwest and far Northern California. I'm hopeful that the ski areas will be able to make snow later in the week after the temperatures cool off again.
We're all waiting on a pattern change that could occur sometime after or around the middle of the month. Will this pattern bring us lots of snow and cold air, or will it just be a few weaker systems? I can't tell you for certain, but at this time, it sure seems like it might be favoring more of Northern California.
The European Ensemble mean for height anomalies is displayed below. I'm showing the 5-day average ending Monday afternoon. At least the ridge has shifted farther East as indicated by the orange and yellow colors and there's the beginnings of a trough just off the coast.
You can see on the GFS Ensemble mean for precip anomaly that that brings slightly greater than normal precip chances for parts of the Sierra and for us it means right around the average.
So, it's certainly not an ace in the hole pattern change, and we might need to give it more time to materialize.
Below is the GFS Ensemble runs for the Big Bear/general SoCal mtn. region. You can see that the GFS shows precip chances increasing right around the weekend of December 15th.
While the storms don't look overly strong it's also almost 2 weeks out and this is lower resolution model. We just have to give it time and stay patient during this dry period. I have faith that we'll see something materialize around the middle of the month.
I'll keep you posted as we get closer to what hopefully will be our first real storm of the year. Keep the faith and pray for snow.
Till the next one... Mike out.
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