Southern California Daily Snow
By Mike Korotkin, Meteorologist Posted 14 days ago February 12, 2024
The next 5 days continue to be mostly sunny and milder. Aka.. our break from active weather in February. But the active pattern reloads by Sunday with storms of varying intensity and snow levels reaching our region and continuing through most of next week. Details will evolve as we get closer but get ready for more snow and rain.
Short Term Forecast
Next 5 Days of Drier & Milder Weather
The forecast for the next 5 days continues to look mostly sunny and milder than we saw last week. Check out the forecast for Mt. Baldy below, which I hear is operating all of its lifts and has access up to Thunder Mtn! Definitely the best conditions of the season out there for them currently.
Temps will be rising up into the low 40's by the end of the work week. Winds should be on the calmer side throughout the week until about Thursday when we could see a few more gusts up to 30 MPH out of the West.
But overall, it's a quiet and mellow weather work week for us. Don't worry... the pattern is certainly changing and we'll likely get our fair share of stormy weather by next week.
Since the details of the storms are all still more than 5 days out I can just let you know some general idea on timing, intensity, and snow levels.
The first impactful storm looks to come through by Sunday of next week, February 18th.
You can see it will push in decent moisture into our region... but snow levels could certainly be higher at the start and overall not drop below 6,500 FT for the duration of the event. That would mean rain to start and much wetter snow than we'd like, but snow is snow, so we'll take it either way.
That storm train looks to continue through the middle of next week with storms of varying intensity going into the work week. We could see lower snow levels by next Monday night into Tuesday for the final set of storms. But that's not a guarantee.
You can really see that the Euro Ensembles lay down a healthy dose of precip for about 5 - 6 days starting next Sunday:
The Euro does look more aggressive overall than the GFS and that's really evidenced in these probability plots below.
The GFS shows that a good portion of the Sierra especially Northern & Central could see 4 inches of liquid by next Thursday, the 22nd of February. The Euro on the other shows the chances are even higher for the Northern Sierra, but also brings chances down to the SoCal Mtns. as well. The GFS mostly cuts those chances off.
One main difference is that the Euro Ensemble is a higher-resolution model, so I'm not surprised that it's bringing those chances further down South.
Either way, it's looking like we'll see a very active week again with maybe a bit less precip than the last go around. I'll keep you posted on the details as we get closer. The Sunday storm won't get into the forecast range until Wednesday.
Till the next one... Mike out.
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