In early February, the 10-15 day forecast did not look very favorable for the west-central US as it appeared that the storm track would stay to the north, like it had for most of the season.

However, after two storms hit Colorado between February 5-10, and now with two more storms about to bring snow to most of the west between February 12-16, it appears that the long-range forecast was wrong and that some areas of the west will get lucky with more-than-expected snowfall over the next week or two.

For February 12-16, the temperature will be below average for most of the western US and Canada, and this signals the region with the best chance for stormy weather.

The first storm of the week will break off from the main west-to-east storm track in the north and instead spin over the four corners region between Colorado, Utah, Arizona, and New Mexico. This should bring the deepest powder to southern Colorado, southern Utah, and potentially to northern Arizona on Monday and Tuesday.

Later in the week, the second storm will move from the Pacific Northwest, down the spine of the Rockies and through Colorado and New Mexico. This storm will create one or two powder days for nearly every region of the west (sorry California, the storm will likely track too far east).

There will be additional storms in the west after Friday, February 16th, but I have low confidence in the exact track and powder potential for any of those storms, so I’ll refrain from sharing any detailed models.

Instead, look at the temperature forecast, which continues to show below-average readings for the western US and Canada. Again, this signals that next week could remain stormy in the west.

Thanks for reading!

JOEL GRATZ

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