Dry and mild Fall weather is in the forecast for at least the next week, probably longer. However, there are plenty of interesting things going on right now that will influence us down the road.
Forecast and Miscellaneous info:
Nothing really going on locally of note right now. Dry weather with above average temperatures looks likely for at least the next 7 days. The cut-off low that brought some showers to northern Utah and flash flooding to southern Utah has moved to the east.
Despite the fact that it looks 'all quiet on the western front', there are some interesting things going on right now not too far off the Pacific coast. The main item of interest is Hurricane Oho. Look at the current forecasted path of this hurricane:
Although it will weaken to tropical storm and eventually depression status, it's still a very unusual path. Oho is the first NE Pacific hurricane ever north of 30N and east of 150W. It is also the first hurricane to pass from the N Central Pacific into the N Eastern Pacific. A lot of "firsts" for this storm, which is a testament to all the warm water in the eastern Pacific right now.
This warm water is likely also contributing to our ridging right now. This might be cause for concern, however it's my belief that as the westerlies strengthen as we get closer to winter, the influences of this warm water will wane. As I've said previously, it's normal for both October and even November to be warmer and drier than normal in El Nino years.
Right now, there is some indication in the long range models that we could see a flip to a colder, snowier pattern during the last week of October. This is a long way out, but it's been reflected in the ECMWF weeklies, the CFSv2, and now the Euro ensemble mean so confidence is growing. So if you're itching for snow, be patient, enjoy some biking or Fall hikes, and hopefully winter will arrive by the end of the month.
As mentioned earlier this week, all signs point to further warming of El Niño.
Evan | OpenSnow