Summary
Quiet weather to start this week but storms will begin to impact the area starting on Thanksgiving day and continuing into the holiday weekend. Significant mountain snowfall is possible.
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Short Term Forecast
Another morning of sipping my coffee, reviewing data and digesting it into a forecast. Feels good to have actual storms to forecast right now. So let's get to it... First, we have a quiet, cool start to this week. Today (Sunday) should be mostly clear, as should the first few days of the work week. High pressure remains generally in control.
Things start to change on Thanksgiving Day as the first system in the upcoming cycle enters the region. This storm is not particularly organized or strong, but both the GFS and Euro have it bringing some modest amounts to the region. Right now, I'd guess rain showers in the valleys, with 3-6" above 7,000ft on Turkey Day.
A bit of a break Thursday night into early Friday, but the next system should arrive later in the day Friday and continue into Saturday. This system has more moisture and better dynamics. This should be at least a moderate snow producing storm for the region. Not sure how much terrain will be open, but Saturday looks to be a powder day. Here are the latest NAEFS ensemble plumes for the U of U:
You can see that there is an initial bump from the first storm on 22-Nov, with a mean of about 0.5" of liquid, or about 7" of snow. Then, there's a more significant rise for the second storm Friday night into Saturday. This brings an additional 1.5" of SWE (or ~20" of snow). Overall, we could be looking at a couple of feet of snow from these two systems.
Changes in the models exist later in the weekend. The Euro, which is drier with these storms to begin with, also dries us out much faster on Sunday. The GFS, however, brings in a third wave a precip late Sunday into Monday of next week. Therefore, the GFS numbers are highly inflated when you look at the full 10 days:
The Euro is more sensible and I think will prove to be the more accurate model in this scenario. It still shows good snowfall amounts:
So it's looking increasingly certain that the mountains of Utah will be snowy for the holiday weekend. Please be aware if traveling!
Extended Forecast
After the holiday weekend, November 26th and beyond, we should see a break with high pressure taking control for at least a few days. It does appear that we could be returning to more active weather either right at the end of November or start of December. Too soon for details but we'll keep an eye on it.
Evan | OpenSnow
A slight bump in potential snowfall and increase in confidence brings us up a bit on the Stoke Meter... Almost to "high"....
