Snow showers likely today with a few inches possible! Three separate storms are going to affect us over the next week with snow for high elevations throughout the state. Significant snow is likely in far southern Utah mountains yet again!
Storm #1: This will affect mostly Northern and Central Utah today as a wave a moisture moves through the area. Expect snow to develop this morning (Thursday) with several inches possible by this evening. Snow showers will linger overnight. Total accumulation by Friday morning will be 1-4" with 3-6" in the Cottonwoods. Should be enough to soften up some turns today but nothing spectacular...
Storm #2: This is the main low pressure system that will drop down the coast and move inland over Southern California and Arizona. This system is going to pull copious moisture into southern Utah and especially into southwest Colorado.
Northern Utah will see snow showers at times through the weekend as pieces of energy rotate up into our area but accumulations should be on the light side, with perhaps another couple inches Friday night through Sunday night.
Southern Utah will see the largest accumulations in the state this weekend. Right now there is still some concern, as with last week, that the best moisture will remain south and east of Utah. If the moisture ends up staying farther south, southern mountains will get 6-12" this weekend, if it tracks a bit farther north, places like Brian Head could see another 1-2 feet of snow.
This map shows total precipitation thru the first two storms ( thru Monday evening):
You can see the higher precip amounts along the AZ border and the San Juans of Colorado get pounded this weekend.
Storm #3: The final storm in the series drops in Monday night into Tuesday. Model trends in the last 12 to 24 hours have been to bring this system farther east which would be good for Northern Utah as the storm would be less likely to dive south and miss us. However, models have been bouncing back an forth between the farther west track and this one, so I'm not confident they won't flip again. Either way, the state will see additional mountain snowfall Tuesday into early Wednesday. Here is a map that includes total precip from all three systems:
For San Juan road trippers:
I don't normally forecast for the San Juans, but since so many people have expressed interest in chasing epicly deep snow, I figured I'd give a few tidbits of insight. Snow should start late Friday and continue into Monday almost continuously, especially for places like Durango, Silverton and Wolf Creek. Telluride should do alright as well. By Monday evening, 1-3 feet is likely... perhaps more in some spots. This snow isn't going to be as dry and light as you may be used to. Due to the southerly flow, the air warms and the snow will likely be 10% or higher water content. Not quite concrete, but not fluff either.
Despite the fact that these areas are far removed from large populations, they are just coming off another 3+ foot storm during a time when much of the west has been powder starved. This storm has been well advertised for several days, so a lot of skiers from Denver and all over will likely be making the Pilgrimage to the San Juans -- so don't expect to have the mountain all to yourself.
The final storm that hits us on Tuesday will also hit the San Juan region late Tuesday into Wednesday. By that time, perhaps some of the crowds will have gone home.
Nothing changed since yesterday. Still looks like we see a break from 3/5 until 3/10... then we see a chance for storms return after 3/10. Of course this is all subject to change as models get within range....
Evan | OpenSnow
P.S. I'm just going to leave this here...
It is the WPC forecasted liquid amounts for the next 7 days. That is not a typo, if you look closely you can see over 8" liquid maximum in Southern Colorado. It could be quite an impressive week of storms!