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Wednesday April 16th 2014 7:02am MDT

Summary:

Spring-like weather with only small chances for showers will continue through the weekend. Potential for a stronger system for the middle of next week.

Details:

Updates as of late have been short and sweet -- partly because the Spring brings a lack of interest and readership drops dramatically even during stormy periods,  also because our Wx over the last 10 days hasn't been overly exciting with only small systems here and there.

This type of pattern will continue into early next week.  A cold front moved through yesterday evening and cooled us off a bit.  A trailing disturbance will provide a small chance for a few afternoon showers in the mountains today.

Another disturbance will move through late Friday through Saturday.  Again, only light accumulations expected over the highest elevations.

Dry to start next week but a change is in store.  Models continue to hint at a stronger system for the middle of next week.  GFS has been the strongest consistently with this feature.  EC finally moved toward the GFS a bit this morning, but is still much weaker.   My guess is we will end up splitting the difference, which means a decent storm is certainly a possibility.  This could end up being one of the last opportunities for powder, so we'll keep an eye on it.

Evan | OpenSnow

P.S.  I'm off to the other side of the world on business tomorrow.  I should have all the available resources to continue making forecasts, however the times at which posts go up will likely be a bit off.    fyi

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Monday April 14th 2014 7:57am MDT

Weak system passed through the area over the weekend.  Most of the moisture was north and east of the area, but we still saw scattered precip.  A thunderstorm rolled through the SLC area early Sunday morning and dropped 1-3" of snow in the Cottonwoods.  Then more showers Sunday afternoon added another couple inches in spots.  Weekend totals were generally less than 3" with the exception of LCC which saw close to 6" since Saturday.  

This week we will continue to be mostly dry, however weak disturbances will pass to our north and give us a chance for light showers from time to time.  It looks like one of these disturbances will move through on Wednesday with another one for the upcoming weekend.  Again, don't expect much more than a couple inches up high with these.  But it's something.... 

High pressure will begin next week.  Models hinting at the possibility for a stronger system later next week, however with poor model consistency, I'm not too confident as of yet.  Something to watch . . . 

Evan | OpenSnow

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Thursday April 10th 2014 11:28am MDT

No post yesterday and a late post today... Mostly because I'm waiting for there to be more agreement in the models.  Both GFS and EC have been fairly consistent in their respective solutions for this weekend.  EC has been more aggressive with dropping the cold front through the area with more moisture this far west.  While the GFS has been equally consistent keeping the coldest air and best energy to the east along the Continental Divide.  Both models have moved ever so slightly toward the middle.  Best guess right now is that we'll have a chance for snow develop Saturday night and continue through Sunday morning.  Even if the EC's aggressive solution verifies, we are still only looking at a few inches.  Sunday is the last day of the season for many local resorts, it would be nice to have a bit of powder for closing day.

Model disagreement for next week, but generally agree that we'll be warm and dry Monday and Tuesday with an increasing chance for cooler and wetter weather mid to late next week as a couple disturbances move into the Great Basin.  Too early to tell how strong they will be, but we'll keep an eye on them over the coming days.

I'd imagine there are still powder days ahead...

Evan | OpenSnow

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Tuesday April 8th 2014 8:18am MDT

Beautiful Spring day on Tap for Tuesday with warm temps, little wind, and plenty of sun. A system will pass well to our north on Wednesday and might drag a few clouds and breezes into the area, but temps will remain very warm with 70s in the valleys and 50s on the mountain.

Nothing has changed in the forecast for this weekend.  EC continues to show a cold front dropping through the area with enough moisture to bring snow to the high elevations Saturday night and/or Sunday.  The GFS still keeps the bulk of precip to our north and east along the continental divide.  Big difference between the models right now so we'll just have to continue to wait and they should align in the next few runs.

Looking into the Long range, there continues to be signs in both models that we could see a more active pattern begin to develop around or just after mid-month.  Still way too far out for any details, but it continues to be something to watch.

Evan | OpenSnow

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Monday April 7th 2014 7:20am MDT

Latest trough has moved east of the area.  It brought a bit of snow at times over the weekend.  Amounts generally were under 3" except in LCC, where Alta reported 8" of new snow over the weekend.  Now deep powder by any means, but it skied well yesterday!

We are now falling under the influence of strong high pressure.  This will warm us up this week.  By Wednesday, we'll see some storm systems pass to our north that will cause winds to pick up, however I don't see any real threat for precipitation until the weekend.  Even then, models and ensembles don't agree.  GFS keeps most precipitation to our north and east, while the EC is deep enough to bring at least a few showers into the Northern half of Utah late Saturday-Sunday.  Either way, deep powder looks highly unlikely.

There are some indications that an active pattern could re-develop by mid-month.  A lot of uncertainty in the long range this time of year as we transition quickly to summer with a weakening jet.  Still, as we all know, the potential for good powder days extends deep into May for many parts of the Wasatch.

Evan | OpenSnow

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