Two more days of quiet weather, then the pattern change we've all been waiting for arrives on Thanksgiving Day. More significant snow possible Friday into Saturday.
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Short Term Forecast
I'm up particularly early thanks to what I believe to be a squirrel in my attic. Something with happy little feet was scurrying around up there. I couldn't fall back asleep so I figured I might as well get a post up.
Really, there hasn't been much change in the forecast for several days, which is good news! The closer we get to these storms and the fewer changes we see in the models, the more confidence I have as a forecaster in this cycle delivering.
The first system is the weaker of the two and it will push through quickly on Thanksgiving day. Mountain snow showers likely with 3-6" of accumulation in the higher elevations. The 06z NAM has about 7" of accumulation total from this system in the Cottonwood Canyons.
I'd expect that to be around the max with lesser amounts elsewhere. You can see in the above graph that it starts snowing again on Friday morning. That is the start of the next, more significant storm system. This system will bring snow to the mountain of Northern Utah starting Friday morning and continuing into Saturday. This system has good moisture and dynamics and a long-duration of possible snowfall. I think we could see fairly significant snowfall amounts.
In general, the 00z GEFS ensemble mean brought 1.5-2.5" of liquid with this system, in addition to what we see on Thursday. This equates to quite a bit of snowfall. Right now I think an additional 1-2 feet is likely Friday and Saturday in the high elevations. It is certainly possible that we could see higher totals in a few favored areas.
Snow should clear out late Saturday and Sunday we should be mostly done with the storm system. Total snowfall in the latest GFS thru the weekend:
The areas of pink are where a foot or more is possible. The areas of white and grey within the pink is areas where 2+ feet is possible. Notice that this is primarily a Northern Utah event. Southern Utah mountains will see snow, but amounts will be significantly lighter.
We have a break to begin next week as high pressure takes control. It looks as if we will have chances for snowfall later next week, toward the end of November. Right now it's far too early for details on how strong these potential systems could be but we'll continue to monitor.
Evan | OpenSnow
Again, back by popular demand.... Stoke has officially increased into the "High" range with further bump in forecasted amounts and confidence gained as we approach the event.