Utah Daily Snow

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By Evan Thayer, Forecaster Posted 2 years ago January 17, 2022

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Summary

High pressure remains in control, but we should finally see another chance for snow in Northern Utah mountains later this week as a cold and moisture-starved system crosses the region. We are also starting to see signs of a potentially more significant pattern change at the end of the month.

Short Term Forecast

Not much happening today on this holiday Monday. I took yesterday off from forecasting because there wasn't much new to say and sometimes when that's the case, it helps to give the models a day to figure things out. Sure enough, it worked! Models have zeroed in on a solution in which we may actually see some light snow later this week. First, we have 4 more dry days to get through. Today should be the warmest, but a dry northerly flow is going to bring modest cooling to the high elevations for the rest of the week. Nothing that we'd consider unusually cold, but maybe not the warm weather we typically associate with high pressure. 

Our system of note that may actually deliver some precipitation arrives Thursday night into early Friday. This system is "cutting off" a bit from the main flow, so it will be diving in out of the north. This is NOT a direction that allows storms to pick up much in the way of moisture. Therefore, snowfall amounts should be light with a decent amount of cool air as well. The EC shows a broad area of light precip in Northern Utah: 

The Canadian is quite similar with its solution: 

And the most aggressive is the GFS: 

In general, the average precip in the Northern Mountains ranges from just 0.1-0.4" of liquid. That would probably equate to just 1-5" of snow. It's not a big storm by any stretch of the imagination, but it's better than nothing and it could at least provide a light refresh heading into the weekend. 

Extended Forecast

High pressure should take control again by the weekend into early next week. Again, this high pressure is not directly overhead, but rather along or just off the Pacific coast. That means it's close enough to block most storm energy, but we don't super warm temperatures. We may still be subjected to dry, or mostly dry, cold fronts that keep us relatively cool. 

The good news that I'm seeing this morning is the EPS ensemble means have a strong signal for high pressure to retrograde westward out by the Aleutian Islands by the end of the month. This would be far enough west for the storm door to open up in the interior western US. Here is an image showing this for January 30th:

Prior to the last couple runs, I hadn't seen anything look remotely this promising in the long-range for quite a bit. Far from a guarantee, obviously, but at least it's something to watch and hope for. 

Evan | OpenSnow

About Our Forecaster

Evan Thayer

Forecaster

To Evan, 'The Greatest Snow on Earth' is more than just a motto - it’s a way of life. In 2010, he started Wasatch Snow Forecast as a way to share the best powder days with his fellow snow-lovers. Evan brings the same quality forecasts and weather discussions to OpenSnow and hopes you enjoy skiing/riding Utah as much as he does.

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