6 AM report- The cover photo is Taos New Mexico showing the storm totals from Monday-Wednesday. 

PNW

If you are in the PNW head north to Baker or south to Crystal where light to moderate snow will bring some fresh turns on Wednesday. 3 inches of lighter-density snow have already fallen at Crystal as of 6 AM. Temps are going to warm bringing snow levels to 4,000 feet (Base of Crystal) so quality will be denser as the day goes on. Baker may also be in the hunt for some moderate totals (4-7) on Wednesday with Stevens coming in with a bit less. 

Sierra

As far as deep chases I have high confidence in the Sierra. 11-15 inches are likely for areas above 8,000 feet, and 5-9 inches from 6,000 to 7,000. Lake-level snow will be in the 3-5 inch range and mainly slush coated with some light density with a cold front Thursday morning. Donner pass will be difficult to travel primarily with the initial surge of moisture Wednesday night.  From my perspective, most areas near the Sierra Crest will get double digits with a slight emphasis on central and northern regions (Homewood, Palisades, Sugarbowl). Some models show higher totals (11-18) closer to the summits of resorts on I-80. I think lower amounts will fall over southern Mono County (Mammoth).

Bottom Line Sierra: Great timing with overnight snow. Double digits above 8,000 feet. Significantly lower totals at lake level. 80% of the snow falls before the cold front with dense quality. High winds Wednesday night add to the smoothing (Denser in wind-prone areas from the SW), Cold air moves in between 3-5 AM Thursday bringing higher quality snow to coat the denser layers. Winds decrease by noon Thursday (Upper lifts might spin with delays on Thursday). Quality could be decent in with a smooth dense layer below a bit of drier snow that falls with the cold front. Chase? Gamble on quality but should be deep up top. Bring the fat skis for some surf powder. 

Rockies

Snow continued in the Wasatch on Tuesday making for some fun moderately deep powder from reports in the Wasatch. The Tetons also delivered up to 6 inches on Tuesday.  Warming is occurring on Wednesday. The system from the Sierra and the PNW will push east primarily impacting western Idaho by late Wednesday night and early Thursday (Brundage or Tamarack). Other choices for Thursday will be in the Tetons and southern Montana where it will be storm ski day. Amounts appear to be in the 5-9 inch range for most of these areas. Higher totals are possible north of Jackson in TNP. JHMR could also tip into double digits (Wildcard). 

Action from the Idaho and the Tetons reaches the Wasatch Range by mid-morning or noon on Thursday with a weak cold front. Late Thursday may offer some decent mid to dense snowfall totals above 8,000 feet (2-5) with increasing moisture Thursday night. Moderate to strong winds shift from the SW Thursday to the NW in the evening and decrease. Snow will ramp up for the Wasatch range for widespread 5-9 inches for PCMR, Ogden, and Logan area mountains with 6-11 additional likely for the Cottonwoods.

Below: 4 PM Thursday showing decent totals possible for western Idaho and the Teton Ranges (5-10). Some models take the higher totals. Southern Montana will also score some moderate snowfall from this storm (Big Sky). 

Storm totals for northern Utah will range from 9-15 inches (Lower elevation resorts on the lesser side of the scale while the Cottonwoods are on the upper ranges). This storm is not cold by winter standards but should deliver decent mid-density powder Thursday night. There is a slight roller coaster of temps late Thursday night as the cold front retreats north briefly so the quality might be variable from pillows to surf layers (Wednesday will be the denser side). 

Colorado grabs the weakened leftovers from Thursday midday to Friday morning. Winds appear to stay SW which will favor the western side of the corridor towards Aspen, Crested Butte (Wildcard), and even Steamboat (Wildcard). Generally, totals in these areas will be in the 4-9 inch range with less on the core of I-70. Temps are warm with denser snow quality for most areas. Colder air looks to make it into Steamboat by Friday morning with 1 model showing higher totals there (Others disagree). 

Below: Total snowfall in the west through Thursday afternoon. You can see the PNW (WA and OR) gets teased on Wednesday, Sierra on Wednesday night, and most of Idaho, MT, and Wyoming on Thursday. The Wasatch and a few areas of Colorado will score from Thursday night to Friday

Below: Totals in Colorado by late Friday favoring the western corridor from CB to Steamboat including Aspen. The amounts don't look overly impressive due to warmer temps (Low snow ratios) but could exceed 6-9. Steamboat is warm initially (Mixed precipitation) but has colder temps at some point Friday that could enhance the snow totals and hopefully improve the quality. 

Below: 24-hour snowfall totals starting on Saturday showing decent odds of a deep dump for the Sierra Friday night with a 4 corners track favoring the southern mountains pushing north to the Wasatch and perhaps the Tetons. There are indications on the GFS that wrap-around moisture might blast the Front Range at some point by Monday/Tuesday (End of the map loop). 

Below: Low pressure over the Sierra Range taking a southerly track into the 4 corners from Saturday to Monday. Heavy snowfall is likely for the Sierra Range (Southern areas might be slightly favored), and moderate snowfall will continue for much of the Intermountain West this weekend into early next week. I am not going to pinpoint totals just yet. this might be one of those storms that just keeps building moderate numbers each day aside from the Sierra that will likely get a decent hit on Saturday. The Wasatch range also looks good this weekend as well as southern areas near the 4 corners. 

The track of the low might swoop up into the Front Range of Colorado at some point early next week and bring another direct hit to the Front Range Mountains. 

Enjoy the powder, everyone!  Check out the Flakes Podcast

https://opensnow.com/news/post/out-like-a-lion-the-flakes-podcast

Powderchaser Steve 

NEW: Snow Ratio Forecast

You can now get a good idea of the upcoming snow quality for the next storm via our new "Snow Ratio" forecast for any location in OpenSnow.

When we talk about snow quality, such as “light and fluffy” or “heavy and wet”, we are talking about the snow-to-liquid ratio. The higher the snow-to-liquid ratio, the lighter the snow quality, and vice-versa.

1. Go to any location screen and tap the "Snow Summary" tab.
2. Scroll down to the 5-day hourly or 10-day forecast section.
3. View the 5-day hourly or daily "Snow Ratio" forecast for the next 10 days.

10:1 will be fun but will feel a little heavy. 15:1 will offer some faceshots and feel pretty light. 20:1 will be incredibly light, almost like skiing through nothing but air.

This new feature is currently available with the latest version of the OpenSnow iOS app installed (App Store > OpenSnow > Update) or on the OpenSnow website (OpenSnow.com). It will be available in the OpenSnow Android app soon.

View → Snow Ratio Forecast

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