Let’s look back at the previous storm. Snow started on Monday, fell steadily on Monday night, and then snow showers continued on Tuesday with very cold temperatures in the single digits (the lack of moisture and very cold temperatures limited the additional snowfall to 1-3 inches on Tuesday).

Storm totals from Monday through Tuesday evening:

Northern Mountains
Beaver Creek - 10”
Winter Park - 10”
Vail - 8”
Breckenridge - 6”
Arapahoe Basin - 5”
Copper - 5”
Granby - 5”
Keystone - 5”
Steamboat - 5”
Echo - 4”
Loveland - 3.5”
Cooper - 3”
Eldora - 3”

Central Mountains
Snowmass - 14”
Monarch -13”
Powderhorn - 13”
Irwin - 9”
Sunlight - 9”
Aspen Highlands - 7”
Aspen Mountain - 6”
Crested Butte - 5”
Buttermilk - 4”

Southern Mountains
Wolf Creek - 19”
Silverton - 13”
Purgatory - 10”
Cimarron Mountain Club - 9”
Telluride - 9”
Hesperus - 7”

Looking back at the forecast, which was for 6-12 inches with the best chance for up to 20 inches in the southern mountains around Wolf Creek, I feel pretty good about how things turned out.

Many northern mountains were on the low side or just below the low side of the forecast, which is a bummer and is likely a reflection of missing a few of the stronger cells that moved through on Monday evening.

Amazingly, Winter Park picked up 10” while surrounding mountains were half of that at best, and Monarch also did much better than nearby areas – I can’t quite explain this other than to credit the convection which must have played a role in delivering stronger cells to certain mountains and not to others.

Also, I liked this storm because the snow was on the dense side with snow-to-liquid ratios likely close to 10:1. This is heavy for Colorado and good for our water supply (and also good for covering up old tracks/crust) on some aspects.

Looking ahead, we will have three storms in the next five days.

* Storm #1 will bring snow on Wednesday night through Thursday. The deepest amounts of 3-6 inches should fall in the southern mountains, with Wolf Creek likely getting 12+ inches. The wind direction from the south should limit accumulations at other mountains to about 2-4 inches. Thursday will be the best time to ski soft snow from this storm.

* Storm #2 will bring snow from Friday afternoon through Friday night. Most mountains should get 3-6 inches with a better chance for 4-8 inches in the southern mountains. The last chair on Friday could offer soft turns, but most models are trending for the storm to bring the steadiest snow after lifts close on Friday afternoon, so my best estimate is that the deepest and softest turns will be on Saturday morning’s first chair.

* Storm #3 will bring snow on Sunday. Again, most mountains should get 3-6 inches and the timing of this storm means that the snow will likely get softer through the day on Sunday. Snow should end around the time of the last chair, so Sunday is likely the best time to ski powder from this storm.

In the wake of the third storm, we’ll likely have dry weather from Sunday night through Tuesday. Then the next system, which will hang over or near California for a few days, should eject a wave of energy to the east and this should bring snow to Colorado starting on Tuesday night or Wednesday and continue through Thursday. I do not know if this will be a weaker system, or, as some models show, a much stronger storm. Stay tuned.

In early March, the weather pattern will shift the main area of storminess (trough) over the west coast or west of the west coast, and this could bring a ridge of high pressure over Colorado. However, most models show that some energy will eject to the east from the main area of storminess at least every few days, so even though the weather pattern in early March will be different than our current pattern, it could/should still bring snow to Colorado.

Thanks for reading!

JOEL GRATZ

Geography Key

Northern Mountains
Steamboat, Granby, Beaver Creek, Vail, Ski Cooper, Copper, Breckenridge, Keystone, Loveland, Abasin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass, Eldora, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Along the Divide
Loveland, Arapahoe Basin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass

East of the Divide
Eldora, Echo, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Central Mountains
Aspen, Sunlight, Monarch, Crested Butte, Irwin, Powderhorn

Southern Mountains
Telluride, Silverton – north side of the southern mountains | Purgatory, Wolf Creek – south side of the southern mountains