It’s now about 200pm on Wednesday afternoon. Here's a quick update on what I’m seeing from this storm so far and what we can expect for Wednesday night and Thursday.

Wednesday so far:

* The freezing level is high, around 11,000 feet.

* The steadiest snowfall has been in the southern mountains. The snow stake camera at Purgatory shows about 6 inches.

* Hit-or-miss showers have dropped rain and snow on other mountain ranges. The resorts still spinning lifts (Arapahoe Basin, Loveland, Mary Jane) saw about 1-2 inches of snow through Wednesday afternoon, but then the sun briefly came out from behind the clouds and quickly melted most of this new snow.

Wednesday night:

* We should see a continuation of the hit-or-miss showers. After the sun goes down on Wednesday evening, temperatures should cool enough that the elevations over 8,000-9,000 feet should have a better chance of the snow sticking to the ground.

* Later on Wednesday night into Thursday morning, the storm will strengthen over the northeastern corner of Colorado, and this strengthening should push wrap-around snow back over the northern mountains.

Thursday:

* The wrap-around snow should continue in the northern mountains through midday. Some models show 3-7 inches from late Wednesday night through midday Thursday. This is possible, and the most likely spot of the deepest accumulations will be around Cameron Pass. There is a low-to-medium chance for some of the wrap-around snow to make it further south to Rocky Mountain National Park and down to the three open resorts.

Below is the forecast radar from the NAM-WRF 3km model from Wednesday morning through Thursday night. Notice how the precipitation is scattered through late Wednesday night, then becomes steadier over the far northern mountains on Thursday morning. The time is given in Zulu or GMT, so subtract 6 hours to get local time here in Colorado.

Powder

The best chance will be above 10,000 feet on Thursday morning and midday as far north and east as you can go in the northern mountains.

Cameron Pass has a good shot. Rocky Mountain National Park down to I-70 could see at least a couple of inches, but we’ll need some luck to get deeper powder at the open resorts.

The issue working against us is the May sun angle, which could limit accumulations during the day on Thursday evening if new snow is falling from the sky.

No matter, this is likely the last chance in the season to ski fresh pow over a wide area, so watch the webcams and reports, and get after it if you want a final bit of pow this season!

Final Post

This is likely my final post for the 2017-2018 season. I’ll plan to post again later in the summer with an update on our new website and app, and a look at the next season.

Thanks for reading!

JOEL GRATZ

Geography Key

Northern Mountains
Steamboat, Granby, Beaver Creek, Vail, Ski Cooper, Copper, Breckenridge, Keystone, Loveland, Abasin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass, Eldora, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Along the Divide
Loveland, Arapahoe Basin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass

East of the Divide
Eldora, Echo, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Central Mountains
Aspen, Sunlight, Monarch, Crested Butte, Irwin, Powderhorn

Southern Mountains
Telluride, Silverton – north side of the southern mountains | Purgatory, Wolf Creek – south side of the southern mountains