Colorado Daily Snow

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By Joel Gratz, Founding Meteorologist Posted 9 years ago February 26, 2015

Long-duration storm from Friday through Wednesday

Summary:

  • Light to moderate snow showers Thursday afternoon through Friday midday
  • Then a long-duration storm from Friday night through next Wednesday
  • Heaviest snow will fall in the southern mountains
  • Moderate snow for the central mountains
  • Lighter snow for the northern mountains
  • Despite these generalities, bands of heavy snow could bring higher totals to central/northern Colorado
  • Next Thursday-Sunday (March 5-8) looks dry

 

Details:

The storm on Wednesday and Wednesday night worked out about as planned with 4-8 inches falling in the northern mountains, about 2-4 inches for the central mountains (though higher amounts at Monarch and Irwin), and about 4-5 inches for the northern part of the southern mountains (Telluride and Silverton), which is a bit more than I anticipated.

Thursday through Friday:
Temperatures are chilly, the snow is fresh, and the sun will shine for Thursday morning. A weak storm will push clouds and snow showers back into Colorado from Thursday afternoon through Friday afternoon. This storm is more of a blob of energy than a defined system, so the snow will take on the form of hit-and-miss showers. This makes it next to impossible to identify the location and timing of heavier snow, so I put 1-3 inches in the forecast for most areas on Thursday afternoon, Thursday night, and Friday. Keep your expectations low, but perhaps a few areas will see a nice surprise. One note is that some models show Wolf Creek getting a bit more snow than other areas, so I have 3-6 inches in the forecast for Thursday night at Wolf.

Friday night through next Wednesday night:
Most mountains will see snow each day for five days. This technically won't be one storm as there will be multiple waves of energy that move across Colorado. But since it's tough to identify any clear break between these waves of energy, for now I'll just talk about it as one long-lived storm system.

The clear trend in the models is for winds to blow from the southwest during most of this event. This will bring a lot of moisture into Colorado and will also focus the heaviest snowfall in the southern mountains (3-5 feet). The central mountains should see less but still significant snow, with perhaps 1-2 feet. The northern mountains will likely see even less with perhaps up to a foot of snow over five days (it's not hard to get to 12 inches of snow over five days as this only requires about 2-3 inches per 24-hour period, on average).

The image below shows the forecast from the Canadian weather model for total precipitation (liquid equivalent). To estimate snowfall, multiply by about 10 in the southern mountains and perhaps 12-14 in the central and northern mountains.

colorado snow
Source: Weatherbell.com

 

For the southern mountains (there is a geography "key" at the bottom of this post), all four global weather models (American, Canadian, European, British) show the potential for 5 inches of liquid equivalent to accumulate, specifically around Wolf Creek. With snow ratios of about 10:1, this means we could see 4-5 feet of snow around Wolf, with likely lesser but still significant amounts for other southern mountains (2-3 feet).

Also, a bunch of folks are sending me emails about Taos, and yes, this would be a good time to enjoy skiing in New Mexico. Taos received about 20 inches last week with another couple feet coming up through early next week. The mountains near Taos should also do well.

Now, let's get a bit nerdy, just for a second.

I forecast the snow amounts for all Colorado mountains by hand (and Bryan does this for the Tahoe mountains). For mountains not in these regions, we use National Weather Service forecasts for the first two days, than use the European weather model for days 2-10.

While my hand-made snow forecasts may not always be more accurate than the NWS and European model forecasts, I do try to keep the forecasts consistent and not vary them wildly each time I update. The NWS and European model forecasts may fluctuate more from update to update, so rather than just looking at the most recent forecast, All-Access Pass holders ($19/year, https://opensnow.com/user/register) can see the trend in the snow forecast by clicking on the arrows below each day's snow forecast number.

For Taos, the trend looks like the following. There is a slight downward trend in the forecast from Friday night through Sunday night, but overall the numbers are rather consistent, showing significant snow. When I see consistency in the forecast, I have more confidence. When there is little consistency (look at Thursday night), I have less confidence in the forecast.

taos snow forecast
Taos forecast trend. Source: OpenSnow.com

 

For the central mountains, look for moderate amounts of snow, perhaps 1-2 feet, over this five-day period. The caveat is that winds from the southwest are not very favorable for these mountains, however, they can do OK with a southwest wind (see last weekend's storm as an example, especially around Monarch and Irwin). Also, during this five-day period, there will likely be one or two waves of stronger energy, associated with the jet stream, and this will create periods of heavier snowfall. During these times of heavier snow, accumulations could be 1/2 to 1 inch per hour. Outside of these times, accumulations will be much lower. It's nearly impossible for me to time these waves of energy, but I can offer an initial estimate that we might see one on Saturday afternoon/night and perhaps another on Sunday afternoon/night.

For the northern mountains, southwest winds are not favorable for heavy snow. So I've kept accumulations low during each day and night period from Friday night through Wednesday. Though, like the central mountains, there is the potential for one or two bands of heavier snow, caused by the jet stream, that could overwhelm the bad wind direction and cause significant accumulations. I think we might see one of these bands on Saturday afternoon/evening and perhaps again on Sunday afternoon/evening.

In about seven years of forecasting, I can only remember two or three times when storms had southwest winds and the northern mountains were able to get lucky and experience a heavier snow band with significant accumulations. So, it is possible, but the odds are against us. Also, it is basically impossible to forecast the location of these heavier bands of snow, so I'll be doing the same thing as you during this storm, which means watching webcams and satellite images to try to see if a heavier band of snow is setting up. There might be a better chance for heavier snow in the northern mountains as this storm exits (Tue or Wed). This is when winds could blow from the northwest, but the timing of the switch is very uncertain right now.

Because this "one" storm actually consists of separate waves of energy, look for lulls in the snowfall over the upcoming five days. I'll do my best during the next few days to keep you updated on the timing of these lulls as well as the spikes in snowfall.

If you want to ride the deepest snow, play the odds and head south. Keep in mind that temperatures will be somewhat warm (in the 20s), so the southern snow should be deep, but it will likely be a bit on the heavier side.

If you can't head south, that's OK. You'll still see soft conditions in the central and northern mountains, and if you're lucky, a band of heavier snow could make one or two of the upcoming days a legitimate deep powder day.

 

Next Thursday through Sunday (March 5-8th):
Dry and sunny, most likely. After essentially 10 straight days of snow in Colorado, the atmosphere will take a break. I can't offer much insight into the forecast after March 8th, so stay tuned. We'll figure that out as our upcoming five-day storm winds down.

 

JOEL GRATZ

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Geography Key:

Northern Mountains
Steamboat, Granby, Beaver Creek, Vail, Ski Cooper, Copper, Breckenridge, Keystone, Loveland, Abasin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass, Eldora, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Along the Divide
Loveland, Abasin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass

East of the Divide
Eldora, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Central Mountains
Aspen, Sunlight, Monarch, Crested Butte, Irwin, Powderhorn

Southern Mountains
Telluride, Silverton, Durango, Wolf Creek

About Our Forecaster

Joel Gratz

Founding Meteorologist

Joel Gratz is the Founding Meteorologist of OpenSnow and has lived in Boulder, Colorado since 2003. Before moving to Colorado, he spent his childhood as a (not very fast) ski racer in eastern Pennsylvania.

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