Summary

Light snow should come to an end by midday Thursday, then two additional systems will bring snow to parts of Colorado on Thursday night into Friday. The northern mountains should see times of snowfall persist from Friday night through Sunday, then we should transition to dry weather for most of next week.

 

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Details

On Wednesday, we saw heavy snow in the southern foothills of the San Juans and only a few inches of new snow made it north to Wolf Creek, Purgatory, Silverton, and Telluride. The same thing happened on Wednesday night. Snow totals during the last 24 hours in the bigger San Juans are in the 2-6 inch range, which is lower than I thought, while some of the foothills picked up double these amounts. Many of the models did correctly predict that the heaviest snow would fall in the southern foothills and not reach the highest mountains where the ski areas are located, but I still thought the ski areas would see a bit more snow than they did.

Also on Wednesday night, a piece of energy from the southern storm moved north across the entire state. Most of the central and northern mountains picked up 1-3 inches. The highest amounts fell further to the west, with Powderhorn measuring 7 inches as a 24-hour total and Irwin (just west of Crested Butte) showing 6 inches on their snow-stake camera.

Now on Thursday morning, we are ‘Stuck in the Middle’ as one storm is swirling over the Texas panhandle while another storm swirls over northwest Arizona. You can see each of these swirls (counter-clockwise) on the infrared satellite image below.

Source: Weathertap.com

 

For the rest of Thursday, we should see light snow continue in the central and northern mountains during the morning, then this snow should dissipate by midday or early afternoon.

On Thursday night, snow will ramp up in the southwest and northeastern parts of the state. The metro Denver area plus the foothills to the west should see snow begin in the evening and continue through Friday morning. Eldora and Echo should see decent snow from this system with at least 3-6 inches and perhaps a bit more. Meanwhile, the storm that’s currently in northwest Arizona will push snow toward the San Juan (southern) mountains on Thursday night. I am concerned that many of the models show most of the snow staying south of the major ski areas of Telluride, Silverton, Purgatory, and Wolf Creek, so I only put a few inches of snow in the forecast for these mountains. Most other mountains (central and north) should see little to no snow on Thursday night.

Friday may continue the pattern of Thursday night, with snow lingering in the southwest and northeast with much of the middle of the state staying drier or seeing just a bit of light snow. I do want to mention that some models push the snow near and just west of Denver further west to Berthoud Pass and Summit County. I’m somewhat skeptical of this and don’t think we’ll see significant accumulations push to Summit County on Thursday night into Friday, but … the models are about as inconsistent with this storm as any storm I’ve seen this season, so there could be some surprises.

Friday night through Sunday, the storms will depart to our east leaving us with a somewhat moist flow from the west and northwest. This pattern should keep light snow going over the mountains from I-70 north to Wyoming, and it could also bring some snow to the central mountains and north side of the San Juans (Telluride, Silverton). Most of the models have really backed off the energy and snowfall for Saturday and Sunday, so I kept the forecasted snow amounts at just 1-2 inches during each day and night period. However, the models often struggle to resolved the fast-moving pieces of energy in northwest flow, so I wouldn’t be surprised if a few of the northern mountains see ~6 inches from Friday night through Sunday, or perhaps a bit more. This may not make for a powder day, but 48 hours of light to at times moderate snow can soften the slopes and provide a nice refresh.

When the models are not in agreement with each other, and are changing their forecast every 6-12 hours with each new run, it’s best to look at precipitation forecasts that average together many models and many runs of each model. The forecast below does just that and shows a general 6 inches for most mountains between Thursday morning and Sunday morning. Also, this forecast hints at the potential for more snow along and east of the divide, so we’ll keep an eye out for that.

Source: Weatherbell.com / OpenSnow.com

 

For next week, I expect dry conditions with just a low chance for snow during the middle or end of the week if a storm sneaks through the west-coast ridge. The weather pattern for next week should push cold air and snow into the northeast (finally!) and also keep stormy weather in the Gulf of Alaska, which is typical for the middle of winter during El Nino. Here in Colorado, this pattern leaves us ‘Stuck in the Middle’ once again, so our chances for seeing heavy snow or consistent cold air is very low.

Source: Weatherbell.com

 

Looking at the following week, from about January 18-22nd, most models show slight variations of the same weather pattern continuing, with storminess in the Gulf of Alaska and perhaps cooler weather in the southeast. I can’t rule out a storm or two pushing east from the Pacific Ocean and bringing snow to Colorado, but this pattern does not favor consistent cold weather or snow.

Source: Weatherbell.com

 

I hate to end on a sour note, so I’ll leave you with this map, which shows that the snowpack across Colorado as of today (Thursday, January 7th) is between near average and nicely above average.

Source: USDA

 

If the rest of this January follows the forecast I mention above, it’ll be similar to past El Nino January’s which came in drier than average. However, since we started the month with an above-average snowpack, I’m hopeful that we won’t slip much below average by the end of the month, and then the snow will ramp up during the second half of February and through May (based on the long-range models and past El Nino seasons). Also, it would only take one slow-moving, high-moisture storm in January to add a bunch of snow and keep our numbers near or above average. While the odds of this happening during the next two weeks are low, the odds aren’t zero. And that’s why I wake up every morning, look at hundreds of weather maps, and keep searching for the next storm:-)

Thanks for reading, and have a great Thursday!

JOEL GRATZ

 

PS - Forgot to mention that New Mexico did pretty darn well last night, with new snow amounts generally between 8-18 inches. Here are the totals for the last few days: http://opensnow.com/state/NM/history

 

 

Geography Key

Northern Mountains
Steamboat, Granby, Beaver Creek, Vail, Ski Cooper, Copper, Breckenridge, Keystone, Loveland, Abasin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass, Eldora, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Along the Divide
Loveland, Abasin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass

East of the Divide
Eldora, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Central Mountains
Aspen, Sunlight, Monarch, Crested Butte, Irwin, Powderhorn

Southern Mountains
Telluride, Silverton, Durango, Wolf Creek (Telluride and Silverton are on the northern side of the southern mountains)