Colorado Daily Snow

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By Joel Gratz, Founding Meteorologist Posted 7 years ago October 31, 2016

A lucky break?

Summary

Look for snow showers over the northern-most mountains on Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday, then the entire state could see precipitation from Thursday through Saturday as we could get a lucky break when a cut-off storm meanders over Colorado. Temperatures will cool later this week and weekend but will remain above average.

Short-Term Forecast

On Monday morning, there are a few showers falling over extreme northwestern Colorado.

I do not think these showers will move very far into Colorado as the storm responsible for these showers will stay well to the north of our state.

For Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday, expect more of the same, with a few showers over northern Colorado and continued above-average temperatures. I wouldn’t be surprised if a couple showers eventually pushed further into the state on Tuesday and Wednesday, but the precipitation amounts should be light and snow levels should be quite high, above 11,000 feet.

Then, on Thursday, Friday, and Saturday, we might get a lucky break.

A storm that is cut-off from the main west-to-east flow of weather will be well to the south of Colorado on Wednesday and Thursday. Because these storms are cut off from the main flow of weather, they drift and meander, and their track is hard to forecast. Luckily, most of the recent forecast models now show that this storm will meander over Colorado late this week into the weekend.

The cut-off storm starts as the blue area in the lower left in the animation below. As the storm moves toward Colorado, you’ll notice that the blue colors disappear and transition to red, indicative of how this cut-off storm will weaken as it moves toward the northeast.

Even though the storm will weaken, it will still allow moisture to push into Colorado, and temperatures will cool a few degrees. This means that most mountains will see showers on Thursday, Friday, and Saturday, with the precipitation starting in the southern mountains and working its way north.

Temperatures will not be very cold, but they will be cooler than what we’ve seen during the last few days, so snow levels could notch down to 10,000 feet or so with at least a couple of inches of snow for the higher peaks.

The track of cut-off storms is difficult to forecast even 2-3 days in advance, so stay tuned and we’ll see if luck is on our side and the storm does eventually track over Colorado.

Extended Outlook

From a computer model standpoint, most 10-15 day forecasts show continued above-average temperatures through at least November 10th. You can see the ridge (red colors, black lines arcing north) over the Rocky Mountains.

However, as we head into mid-November, around November 15th-ish, the American GFS and European ensemble forecasts (a collection of many forecasts, which is what we need to use when looking that far into the future) show some type of shift in the ridge.

I have learned not to get excited by 15-day forecasts, but the fact that BOTH the American GFS and European models show the ridge either losing strength or shifting west could allow the weather pattern to change during the second half of November. Something to watch.

From a historical standpoint, I looked back at the past 37 years of snow data at a station in central Colorado to see what happened when we started a season with little to no snow.

What I found was, during seasons when we had no or very little snow on the ground on November 10th (like we’ll have this year), there was no correlation between that low snowpack in November and the snowpack by late December.

Out of 11 seasons that had little to no snow on the ground on November 10th, by the time December 31st came around, 4 of those seasons had above average snowpack, 3 of those seasons had average snowpack, and 4 of those seasons had below average snowpack. Essentially, the odds of above average, average, or below average are about 1/3rd, 1/3rd, and 1/3rd.

Thus, it’s not time to panic just yet. All we need is a pattern shift and consistent storminess for about 2 weeks, and we’ll have a lot of ski terrain open very quickly. Time to do your snow dance!

Snowmaking

Temperatures have been and will continue to be too warm for most mountains to make snow. We will experience cooler weather from Monday afternoon through Thursday over northern Colorado, so there might be an opportunity for high-elevation snowmaking, but it won’t get very cold and conditions will still likely be marginal.

When our cut-off storm passes through late this week and early during the weekend, temperatures will cool to about freezing at 10,000 feet, but due to the higher humidity levels, conditions for snowmaking still won’t be ideal.

If you’re jonesing for snow, either catch a few turns at Abasin, or drool at the forecasts for mountains to our north and west:

Whistler, British Columbia, Canada: https://opensnow.com/location/cawhistler

Lake Louise, Alberta, Canada: https://opensnow.com/location/calouise

Asahidake, Hokkaido, Japan: https://opensnow.com/location/jpasahidake

Thanks for reading!

JOEL GRATZ

Heli-ski event at Arc’teryx in Cherry Creek on Wednesday, November 2nd

Join myself and Canadian Mountain Holidays Heli Sking at the Arc’teryx store to enjoy a few beverages, learn more about CMH’s lodges and trips from one of their guides, watch a few short films, and hear more about my trips to CMH and if I think it’ll ever stop being super warm in November:-) The event is from 6pm-8pm on Wednesday, November 2nd, at the Arc’teryx store at 250 Columbine St. Please RSVP so we can get an accurate count for seating and beverages: http://opsw.co/cmharcteryx

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About Our Forecaster

Joel Gratz

Founding Meteorologist

Joel Gratz is the Founding Meteorologist of OpenSnow and has lived in Boulder, Colorado since 2003. Before moving to Colorado, he spent his childhood as a (not very fast) ski racer in eastern Pennsylvania.

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