It’s springtime, and in so many ways the models are acting that way. Models are not as accurate, and forecasters and weather dweebs should act accordingly!

This means that many of the details that were seen in the models at a distance need to be taken with much more skepticism, rather than relied upon as one would in January and February.

I have been touting this now for the past several updates and you can see why in the performance of current modeling. The current storm split, plain and simple.

The next system for Friday night into Saturday looks to split as well. This means that there will be similar snow amounts from the next system with not much for the town of Mammoth.

Our Tuesday/Wednesday storm system was touted to bring some 1 to 2 feet over the pass. We received about 10 inches over the crest. In town, although the snow/rain melt bucket picked up about 1/3 of an inch of water, only about an inch of snow accumulated because by the time it got cold enough to snow the precipitation was over.

Now this Friday and Saturday's system that was touted about 5 days ago, as being bigger than the Tuesday system, looks weaker at this time. For the most part, this is because of the split flow.

These are plain vanilla spring-time storms, usually bringing up to a foot over the crest and depending upon the storm's freezing level and nature of the split, 1 to 3 inches in town.

What is noteworthy is the Sunday night and Monday system. This storm is not any stronger based on the amount of cold air. However, it is forecasted to NOT split as it crosses the sierra. That alone will bring better snowfall amounts to the sierra crest and town. Possibly 12 to 18 inches over the crest, “If it comes through consolidated.”

The pattern in the longer range may continue to be unsettled, but no major storms on the horizon. That is, no 2-3 foot storms with major travel problems.