Potential all time water record on Mammoth Pass...

DWP telemetry showing 94.7 inches of water 4/25/2017. Note that this may be revised down with a May 1st manual reading, and 90 inches is the record set back during the winter of 1983.

Mammoth Mountain reported as of 4/26/2017 that 612 inches of snow had fallen at the Main Lodge for the winter of 2017. If we get more snow between now and the Fourth of July, that will add to it.

Seasonal precipitation since October 1st is reported to be 97.40 inches of water. Several inches of rain fell during the month of October.

The snow-water equivalent since October 1st is reported to be 87.39 inches, meaning that there is 87.39 inches of water in the snow pack.

With Canyon Lodge now closed, it is a good time to end these updates. I want to thank everyone that supported us from November through today.

I had to sharpen my skills in the longer range and I think that those longer-term forecasts worked out pretty well overall. Weather is an inexact science. There are some winters that are very difficult to predict in the medium range and others that are much easier. I have to say that the forecast models like the EURO and GFS had done a spectacular job this year. It has been a pleasure working with them. I hope that in the years to come, the longer range will become as accurate as the 7-day forecast.

For you die-hard skiers and boarders, you will want to know if the season gets extended. For now, the mountain officially closes on the Fourth of July. In the meantime, I am returning to my old Dr Howard and the Dweebs Blog …….:-) This will be for the remainder of the Spring, Summer and into the Fall. I will report on El Niño’s progress and the Space Weather as it pertains to the Solar Minimum.

Looking ahead:

Odds are increasing that a significant EL Niño will develop by the fall. El Niños, as we all know now, it can be dry or wet here in the central Sierra.

A lot has been learned in regards to the Modoki El Nino whereby the warmest water is further west toward the dateline. These tend to be drier El Ninos. Whether we have a normal El Nino or another Modoki El Nino, I will report on that later this summer.

Here is my last Winter/Spring forecast:

Fishing Opener will be quite chilly at daybreak with lows in the 20's. Afternoon highs will climb well into the 50's. Sunday morning will not be too cold, with lows in the low 30's. However, afternoon highs will climb to the mid 60's. Monday’s temps will be about the same as Sundays.

For you skiers and boarders, Saturday will begin windy over the ridge tops in the morning with winds backing from the northeast. The winds should diminish a bit during the afternoon.

Sunday will be warmer with still some gusty easterly winds over the sierra crest. Saturday a.m., lows will be in the 20's with highs in the 40's climbing to the low 50's by Sunday.

Meteorology:

I think that low pressure systems remain fairly active over the Pacific. However, it is unlikely that we will experience any wet weather from those this far south during the next 5 to 7 days.

The Eastern Pacific Ridge remains between 140 and 130 west. This will keep the downstream trof over the Rockies and most of the wet weather in the central US. One particular short wave coming over the top of the ridge will pull in some chilly air Friday. Thus cooler breezy to windy weather is expected today into Friday.

Thereafter, a warming trend begins as the upper ridge nears the west coast Sunday. This upper ridge actually builds into California Wednesday with probably some of the warmest couple of days of the year thus far. Thereafter the ridge shifts east and breaks down. There is always the possibly of some weather getting in here that following weekend.

Interseasonal:

The CFS model (Climate Forecast System) is calling for a period of unsettled weather during the 2nd half of May. Cold and snow is always a possibility with the pattern suggested. Hope it holds off until after Mother’s Day!

Climate:

Summer Outlook:
The summer does not look to be a hot one. Temperatures overall look seasonal with cooler than normal periods and slightly warmer than normal periods. It may be a breezier than a normal summer. Precipitation looks average with an inch of precipitation here in the Mammoth area, July and August.

Follow the Dr Howard and the Dweebs page throughout the summer for short and medium range temps, winds and rainfall forecasts.

Think sunshine with warm days! ;-)

See you all in the Fall……