Summary

Snow chances are trending down for later this week as the ridge tries to hold on. 

Details

If you have been following the Daily Snow recently, you will know that there has been a lot of back and forth on what the pattern is going to do towards the end of this week and into early next week. The snow over northern Colorado and Wyoming early this week unfortunately will not make it to New Mexico. Right now, it is looking like the wave that could bring us a chance of snow Thursday is going to end up being just a bit too far north to help create snow showers over northern New Mexico. While there will be a generally moist flow over the area Thursday-Saturday, temperatures will be warm and lift will be hard to find. Warm temperatures really limit the orographics of the area, as you need cold air to condense the water vapor and have it form snow. Warm air can hold a whole lot of water, and doesn't really like to let it go. 

Below is the pattern for Thursday evening, highlighting the weak trough that will scoot to our north.

Source: weatherbell.com

The warm southwest flow will continue through the weekend, with limited action available for New Mexico. For now, the GFS wants to build back the trough into early next week, giving more dry and sunny weather for the middle of February. Below is what the pattern could look like. 

Source: weatherbell.com

I apologize for more sad news, but this is just how it is for now. The long range models are still holding strong that this ridge will get a big kick out for the last 3-5 days of February and into early March. We are still outside the scope of the operational GFS and Euro, so I do not have additional sources to use as speculation. We will have to wait and see, but I do generally agree that a pattern switch should be coming for the end of the month!

I hope that you have a great Sunday!