Summary

The anticipated shift in the pattern is going as scheduled, but as the individual storms come more into focus, there are many variables to discuss. There will be many chances of snow over the next two weeks, some with large impacts, some with small impacts. The first chance of snow will be Monday, with chances again Tuesday and Tuesday night. A strong wave will also move through sometime in the March 11-13th time frame, with an active pattern continuing through the forecast period!

Details

As we move into the weekend, you may feel a change in the air. The ridges that have controlled much of the last few weeks will be giving way to a more active pattern that will dominate the next few weeks. However, as much as I have been advertising an active pattern, we still need to see favorable storms in order to get good snow chances for New Mexico. As the individual storms come into focus, there are many details that need to be taken apart and put back together again in order to formulate a coherent and accurate forecast. I am not going to lie, the first half of next week is going to be a challenge, but I am up for it. Let's start with this weekend. 

Source: Weatherbell.com

The image above is for Saturday evening, and the pattern is definitely shifting. The large ridge is beginning to be pushed eastward out ahead of a strong jet. The pattern over New Mexico will become more zonal (west to east oriented), and temperatures will remain mild, though with more moisture in the air. As the weekend moves forward, the strong jet and trough will "spit out" a few weak troughs, the strongest of which will impact northern New Mexico on Monday. Below you can see this illustrated. 

Source: Weatherbell.com

Unfortunately, the models have been trending north with the first trough, which pushes the best snow into northwest New Mexico and southern Colorado. With moderate moisture available, I think that the Jemez Mountains will see the best chance at accumulating snow, with lighter amounts in the Sangre's. The timing on this snow will be early Monday morning through the day Monday, but as of the 12z models this morning, I am not expecting large accumulations with this first round for the ski areas of northern New Mexico. A shift of 100 miles would change this a lot, but below you can see how most ski areas are just on the edge of snow accumulation Monday. 

Source: Pivotalweather.com

After the first shortwave moves out of the area Monday evening, we will see a dry period as the main system ramps up during the day Tuesday. The main storm will cut off from the main flow and move through northern Mexico, bringing cold air and drawing moisture from the subtropics. Below is the 500mb pattern for Tuesday afternoon, when I believe snow will return to New Mexico. 

Source: Weather.cod.edu

As the day goes on Tuesday, the cold core of the low will dramatically decrease temperatures aloft, the winds will shift to the south, and moisture will be drawn into New Mexico. The combination of these three ingredients will "turn on" the orographics of northern New Mexico, and will result in accumulating snow through the afternoon and evening Tuesday. For southern New Mexico (namely Ski Apache), the onset of snow will be delayed a bit as their snow will be formed mainly by the dynamics of the upper level low and jet. So, in short, I think that there will be snow for the northern mountains Tuesday afternoon and into Wednesday morning, and snow for Ski Apache Tuesday night into Wednesday evening. Snow will shut off for the northern mountains during the day Wednesday as the system warms and the orographics become less favorable. Below is accumulations from Tuesday morning through Wednesday evening. Multiply by 12 for total forecast snowfall.

Source: Pivotalweather.com

There is a lot going on with this storm, and I can easily see the forecast changing, but this has been my attempt to give you a better understanding of where we stand for next week. 

Here is a brief conclusion: Snow for the northern mountains during the day Monday (very light accumulations), and Tuesday afternoon - Wednesday morning (moderate accumulations possible). Snow for Ski Apache Tuesday night - Wednesday night (large accumulations possible). Temperatures will remain below freezing for the mountainous elevations through Wednesday night, at least. 

If you have questions (and I can understand why you would), I will happily clarify anything and everything. After the ridiculousness of this forecast, the cut-off low wanders into west Texas and gets kicked out by an even stronger, yet more typical trough by the next weekend (March 12th-13th). That is a story for another time. I hope that this forecast stayed somewhat coherent, and I know that this is a large change from previous forecasts, but I felt like the totality of the beginning of next week needed to be discussed. I apologize for this being late, but I really wanted to include all of the 12z data that I could. I hope you are having a great Thursday!