Sorry for the lack of updates during October and November, but there just hasn't been much weather to talk about (unfortunately).

The calm weather during the past two months has left us with a snowpack that is well below average. This maps shows the percent of average snowpack in river basins across the western US, and in New Mexico, the measurements are coming in between 0-37% of average (lower-right on the map).

The good news is that there is hope on the horizon. While it's far too soon to figure out the details of the next storm, most models do show active weather between about December 3-7.

When a storm is still a week away and there is little consensus in the forecast, one way to look at the possibilities is to run a weather model multiple times with slightly different data. Here is a graphic showing the runs from 51 versions of the European weather model. The green bar at the bottom shows the average snowfall across all 51 versions of the model.

The average is about 7 inches between December 3-7. Some models show about an inch, others show about 20 inches, so it's unwise to focus on any single number.

The takeaway is a good one, though, which is that chances for snow will increase between December 3-7 and with some luck, the mountains of New Mexico will get double-digit snow totals.

Stay tuned!

JOEL GRATZ