No changes to the forecast over the past 24 hours.  GFS, Euro, and now the Canadian are all showing moisture trying to undercut the ridge to the North and into CA by next Wednesday.  

The GFS and Canadian are pretty weak with the jet and only bring in light amounts of snow before rebuilding the ridge again off the coast by the followin weekend returning the dry weather.  The European deterministic run is a little stronger with the undercutting moisture and then keeps the ridge far enough off the coast for a cold storm to drop into CA Thu/Fri.  

We will have to keep watching a few more days to see if we can get some more consistency on the model runs.  They have been hinting at precip moving in the middle of next week for over a week now.

Looking at the Ensemble runs they are still split on whether the ridge builds back in throuh mid-month or only briefly with another trough for the West Coast.  One thing of slight inteterest is one of the latest NCEP forecast for the MJO.  It's much stronger than the other models but "IF" the MJO becomes active "AND" starts moving it "COULD" positively affect our weather beyond mid-month "IF" it heads towards phases 1 & 2.  I had to emphasize there since we are now looking for any sign of hope.  The PNA, AO, NAO, and MJO are all just floating in the neutral zone currently.

Some people have been asking why the storms are always 2 weeks away.  During a long dry spell or a drought like the past year we have been saying the next potential storms are at least 2 weeks away.  That is because most of the forecast models we use don't go out further than 2 weeks.  Sometimes it is just because the long-range models continue to show signs of hope week 2 and they fade away....

Stay tuned....BA