Dry Wednesday - Friday 

We will continue to have nice weather during our mid-week dry and mild period. Temps will be milder today, Wednesday in the mid-40s before cooling down into the upper 30's by Friday. 

Winds will get gusty on Thursday and Friday ahead of the storm out of the Southwest. 30 - 40 MPH gusts are likely both days so be prepared for colder and blustery conditions. 

Stronger Storm over the Weekend 

In typical Spring fashion, our fickle low-pressure system is starting to trend further South, which means we are going to be the favored region in SoCal. This is somewhat not surprising given that it's an El Nino year and a strong one at that.

You can really see that by Saturday morning the low pressure will be pushing the main brunt of moisture right into SoCal with the heaviest precip focused over our region and in the mtns. especially. 

Precip Totals 

The precip totals are still a little all over the place for this storm. I'm hopeful that by Friday we have a better consensus. 

GFS

Euro

You can see that the GFS brings much heavier precip to the Big Bear and San Jacinto Mtns. The Euro on the other hand pushes the strongest moisture into the Ventura County mtns. along with San Diego County. 

That would definitely imply very different snowfall scenarios between the models. The WPC model looks like it did yesterday with very heavy precip over the mtns. that is likely overdone. 

Snow Levels 

The snow levels for this storm will be low enough to where there should be no rain issues for any ski area. You can see that yby early Saturday morning snow levels should be below 6K FT and falling to almost 4K FT by Saturday night. They may rise toward 6K FT on Sunday but it should still stay all snow for the bases.

Snowfall Forecast 

We will see the heaviest precip on Saturday morning with a lull by Saturday night and another wave of moisture on Sunday. It will be a cool and wintery weekend with stronger gusts on Saturday and low visibility. Be prepared for storm conditions if you're trying to ride the powder on Saturday. 

Taking an average between the models gives me about 14 - 20 inches for the Big Bear Mtns. and similar amounts for the San Gabriel's. The wetter scenarios of the GFS and WPC could push that high end up to 2 FT. Some select areas above 8K FT might very well see closer to 2 FT because of higher snow-to-water ratios. 

I will continue to update the forecast throughout the week. 

Next Week 

After a stormy and wintery active weekend, we are looking at a drier and milder start to April. Check out the graphics below: 

Height Anomalies 

Both the GFS and Euro show a ridge over the West coast. The GFS has a stronger one which will end up giving us warmer temps, but either way they both indicate drier weather with Spring days returning. 

Precip Anomalies 

In terms of precip, both models are pretty much telling the same story. it will be drier than average or about average, which for this time of year means limited moisture in our region. That's not surprising given the ridge scenario in the previous graphics. So.. we will get a chance to dry out for a little bit next week. 

The ridge is poised to move East with a trough replacing it so there's a good chance we continue to see some stormy weather in April... 

Till the next one... Mike out. 

NEW: Snow Ratio Forecast

You can now get a good idea of the upcoming snow quality for the next storm via our new "Snow Ratio" forecast for any location in OpenSnow.

When we talk about snow quality, such as “light and fluffy” or “heavy and wet”, we are talking about the snow-to-liquid ratio. The higher the snow-to-liquid ratio, the lighter the snow quality, and vice-versa.

1. Go to any location screen and tap the "Snow Summary" tab.
2. Scroll down to the 5-day hourly or 10-day forecast section.
3. View the 5-day hourly or daily "Snow Ratio" forecast for the next 10 days.

10:1 will be fun but will feel a little heavy. 15:1 will offer some faceshots and feel pretty light. 20:1 will be incredibly light, almost like skiing through nothing but air.

This new feature is currently available with the latest version of the OpenSnow iOS app installed (App Store > OpenSnow > Update) or on the OpenSnow website (OpenSnow.com). It will be available in the OpenSnow Android app soon.

View → Snow Ratio Forecast