I have no changes to the forecast this morning.  All of the forecast models are similar with up to a half inch of liquid on the high end West of the lake along the crest.  Normally that would only be enough for up to 5 inches of snow, but this storm is so cold we could have 20:1 snow ratios that could double that.  

You can see on satellite the low spinning South over land which is why it's not pulling in moisture.  Out ahead of it is the cold front pushing into CA.  Winds today are howling with gusts over 90 mph on the mountain tops.

Looking at radar the snow showers are slowly moving South.  I've seen people tweeting that the snow will start at 10 a.m.  It likely won't start until this afternoon with the heaviest snowfall expected with the cold front this evening.

This is a weak storm with not much moisture.  It is only big news because we have not had much snow this season, and because this storm is so cold.  Here is a copy paste of yesterday's forecast.  This is by Tuesday morning.  After the cold front moves through dropping a few inches this evening we will have scattered snow showers through Monday that could drop a few more inches.

We will watch for any heavy snow bands to setup tomorrow.  That will be the best chance for the higher end of the forecast.  We will keep an eye on the South shore for a lake effect snow band to setup.  Tomorrow will be very cold with highs only in the teens on the mountains.  Wind gusts drop down to 30-40 mph, but that will make it feel like zero degrees on the mountains to your skin.

It stays cold all week with highs in the 20's on the mountains and 30's at lake level Tuesday into next weekend.  It is the coldest week I can remember in a while.  Several waves will ride down the West side of the Western trough through the week.  They are all moisture starved storms riding over land.  The next one will move through Wednesday and could bring a dusting of snow.

For the Thursday system the GFS has shifted a bit West closer to the European model, but the Euro is still about twice as wet.  Still, it's a weak system that will likely only bring a few inches of snowfall for Thursday.  Here is the initial forecast.

There is another system that could bring a dusting next Saturday as is brushes us.  What we need is for the ridge off the coast to shift West to allow these storms to drop down the coast over water and pull in more moisture.  The European model has consistently shown this for the next storm on Monday the 26th.  The GFS has been back and forth on how wet this storm could be.  We will keep a close eye on it.

It appears that the week of the 26th the ridge will shift further away from the West coast.  So if the Monday storm doesn't bring more moisture, the next few storms could.  The good news is that we are in a cold and active pattern, but we need feet not inches with each storm.  Let's hope that happens at the end of the month into March.

Stay tuned...BA

P.S. As I always try to do on a storm day, tomorrow I will be out on the mountains posting to the "TahoeWeather" Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram pages.