Not much change to the forecast again this morning.  When the forecast models come into better agreement on the forecast and keep a steady forecast, it increases confidence.  We have a lot of wind on the way along with some snow for Sunday night.

If you want the nicest weather for skiing over the next 5 days it is probably today.  We have sun, temperatures going into the 40's, and light winds.  Here is a look at the lake this morning from Diamond Peak Ski resort looking towards the west.  They opened yesterday which means most ski resorts all now open for the season.

Wind:

For Friday we have a storm approaching that will lose all of its moisture just before it reaches us.  Literally slamming the brakes on snowfall just to our northwest.

We will see strong winds and increasing clouds through the day on Friday as the storm approaches.  Ridge gusts could exceed 70 mph which will likely close some upper mountain lifts.  It is possible that we could see a few snowflakes Friday night, especially NW of the lake near Donner Summit, but not expecting any accumulation.

The Weekend:

The weekend we are expecting to be windy but dry.  Saturday wind gusts are expected to come down to around 30 mph and then increasing again for Sunday with lift issues likely again.  We should see some sun on Saturday and maybe into Sunday morning before clouds increase ahead of the next storm.  Highs should warm into the 40's Saturday but could cool into the 30's Sunday with the wind making it feel colder.

Sunday Night Storm:

Based on the latest model runs, it looks like snow from the next storm could push in around 8-10 PM on Sunday night.  That gives most people visiting from the Bay enough time to leave Sunday afternoon/evening, but I would leave sooner than later. 

The forecast model average is holding steady for the 3rd day with around 1/2 an inch of liquid on the high end west of the lake along the crest, and lesser amounts going east across the lake.  The GFS and Canadian models have become slight wetter with up to 1/2 an inch, while the European model has dropped to slightly drier around 8 tenths.  The WPC & GFS ensemble mean runs are under 1/2 an inch which is keeping the average at just over half an inch at 0.53 inches of liquid. 

With the GFS model a little wetter this morning, my snowfall forecast actually increased an inch.  But with the average still around 1/2 inch of liquid, I would lean towards the lower end of the forecast range.

The good news is that the drying trend is still paused for now.  Let's hope this storm can hold together and bring us several inches of snow before we go into a drier pattern starting Monday afternoon. 

High pressure is going to build in next week with sun and warmer temps.  We could see highs break 50 degrees at lake level by midweek. 

It has been cold and the ski resorts have been making snow on top of the natural snow that fell earlier this month.  The snowpack reading on Monday was right at average for this time of year.  So right now there is plenty of snow on the trails.  If we get a refresh Sunday night, the weather next week should make for nice skiing on the groomed trails.

When the 2-week forecast looks fairly dry with no big storms, I go into overdrive looking at every model run, teleconnection, and long-range forecast discussion I can to try and get an idea of where the pattern is going.  That has been my day the last few days...

Yesterday I mentioned how there wasn't a clear indication of where the pattern was going looking at all the model runs and teleconnections.  I posted a quote from a long-range forecaster saying there were a lot of conflicting signals.  This morning the NWS in Reno made a similar comment.

"After that, the predictability of the pattern so far this winter has been very low. Ensembles and even the deterministic models (flip-flops between trough/ridge) show the low predictability ideas."

Most forecasters trying to figure out what happens beyond the middle of next week are pulling their hair out.  The ensemble mean runs have been showing the ridge over CA next week shifting northwest towards the Gulf of Alaska week 2.  Today the ensemble mean runs are showing the ridge shifting more west than north week 2.

The ensemble control runs are showing that even more pronounced by Christmas.

That pattern would open the storm door into the West Coast.  The European control run is a bit further north with the ridge in the eastern Pacific which drives down more cold air from the north as well as allows storms to move in off the Pacific.  

The teleconnection forecasts on the European models are still keeping most of the patterns and oscillations near neutral later in the month.  But some signs of a pattern change are starting to show up on the GFS ensemble runs.

The bounce back to positive on the EPO starting around Christmas would be a pattern with a trough in the Gulf of Alaska like we have seen the last couple weeks.

The dip towards negative on the PNA forecast would be a pattern with a West Coast trough.

It's kind of pointless to go too much further than that.  There are still conflicting signals and flip-flopping on the models beyond a week.  I'm just noticing through my obsessive tracking that the long-range of the models appear to be hinting at a pattern shift around Christmas.  We will have to see if that continues to be the trend and if the pattern flip is the ridge in a position that supports storms.

Of note is that the European model runs have been showing a pretty strong atmospheric river into the Pacific NW around the 21st.  The latest ECMWF run pushes that south into Northern CA.  Not buying into that yet, but will keep an eye on it.

P.S.  Plenty to worry about besides storms with the holidays coming up. One of the things associated with this time of year is giving to others in need.  Join me for skiing and boarding this Friday at Sugar Bowl to hit the slopes and give to those in need. 

Bring a toy (valued at $15 or more) and get 50% off your lift ticket.  For each toy donated Sugar Bowl will donate an additional $5 to the relief fund.  Victims of the fire will be able to ski for free on Friday. 

I'll be there with my toy, and helping to collect toys and ski with everyone.  Put it on your schedule this week!  If you can't make it and still want to donate money here are a few links below to do so.

https://www.goldenvalley.bank/Community-Foundation.aspx

https://www.nvcf.org/

https://rakeamericagreatagain.us/

https://upperparkclothing.com/collections/butte-strong-fundraising-collection