Final Storm Stats:

The ski resorts west of the lake along the crest are reporting an additional 1-3 inches of snow from the last 2-3 hours of snow that fell yesterday morning before the storm moved out. 

I did see that the precip was hung up along the crest yesterday morning which is why there was no additional snowfall east of the crest.  There was an area of heavier snowfall near Bear Valley/Dodge ridge to the south of Kirkwood where 7-10 inches fell.  Overall the variance to the final forecast from 2 days ago was around 0.6 inches.  Nice to nail a storm finally!  That helps the total year average which was at 2.5 inches before this storm.

Here are some more stats.  What is interesting is that the YTD total precipitation % is close to the YTD upper mountain snowfall %.  That is because we have had colder storms this year with mostly all snow on the upper mountains.  Last year the YTD precip % was way above the snowfall % with all the warm storms.  

The Forecast:

It is partly cloudy this morning but the winds are gusting 60-70 mph on the upper ridges.  That could cause some lift delays today.  There is a storm moving through to our north which could keep winds gusting to 50+ mph on the ridges today.  Highs only in the 30's on the upper mountains and 40's for the lower levels.

Wednesday into Thursday it remains sunny and mild with highs into the 40's, and we may break 50 at lake level.  Wind gusts should drop to 30 mph on Wednesday but will pick back up to 50+ mph on Thursday ahead of the next storm.  We could see increasing clouds later Thursday.

Thursday Night-Friday Storm:

The next system pushing into the West Coast has a narrow moisture tap but is falling apart as it moves into CA.  That has been the story for 2 weeks.  It had looked like this system could weaken enough to bring us nothing, but the trend the last 2 days has been for it to hold together a little better. 

But we are still expecting only very light amounts of precip Thursday night into Friday morning.  Here is a look a the NAM model forecast.

The GFS and European models are both the wettest of the models with up to a quarter inch of liquid northwest of the lake near Donner Summit.  The model average is 0.17 inches of liquid.  so I would lean towards the lower end of the snowfall forecast.

For Saturday we should see some sun with highs into the 40's.  The winds may be gusty again with the next storm approaching.

Sunday-Tuesday Storms:

There is some disagreement for Sunday as the European model digs the next trough in a little deeper and brings in a decent snowstorm.  It has over an inch of liquid near the crest.  The GFS and Canadian models are not as deep with the trough and keep most of the precip to our north.  

Then for the next storm moving in for Monday, the GFS is wetter than the European model as it digs in a nice little storm. 

Here is a look at the GFS total precipitation forecast through Tuesday.  It is pretty close to the model average which is 1.2 inches of liquid west of the lake near the Sierra crest with lesser amounts east across the lake.

It's a little early to look at the snowfall details, but I thought I'd give you an early present.  Especially since it's a major travel time.  For the forecast, I'm using the average of the GFS and European models, which means the GFS is dragging down the Sunday forecast and the European is dragging down the Monday forecast.

Overall expecting a colder period Sunday through Christmas Day with a chance for snow each day.  The most agreement on the models is several inches for Christmas Eve.  Here is the early estimate of the total snowfall potential through Tuesday.

There is good agreement on the ensemble mean runs of the models that a trough will be over the West through the 28th.  That should keep us cold next week.

The next chance for a storm is next Thursday as a system drops into the back side of the trough.  The European and Canadian model runs show the storm.  If you are looking at the GFS model you see it keeps the storm to the north next Thursday, but it's not agreeing with its own ensemble mean run for the pattern.

Looking at the weekend of the 30th into the beginning of January, the models show high-pressure building in over the West with a trough in the northeast Pacific.  The GFS and European ensemble runs have that trough close enough to the West Coast that storms could continue to push into CA.

The Canadian ensembles shouldn't be ignored, and show the trough further west with more of a ridge over the West Coast.

The MJO is slowing over the Maritime Continent, and most of the teleconnection forecasts are bouncing around average, so no clear signal which pattern we are leaning towards yet.

Stay tuned...BA