Tuesday Storm Recap:

The system that moved through on Tuesday performed as expected on the south side of the lake bringing 7-18 inches of snow.  Once again northwest of the lake got hammered with 23-29 inches of snow, 5-11 inches over the forecast.  

Looks like about 23" on the stake at Northstar matching their 24-hour report.

The Sugar Bowl boot disappeared overnight...

The GFS forecast model nailed it this time.  It was the wettest model run for this storm and if we had only used it for the forecast the high end of the forecast would have been 2 feet.  Of course, I don't forecast off the highest model run or we would be disappointed more times than not.  For some reason, the last few storms are over delivering northwest of the lake.  Here are the 2-day totals.

Here is the keep me honest report card for this storm.  You can see the ski resorts on the south side of the lake came in right on forecast again, and on the north side over forecast again.

At lake level, we saw more than forecast as well on the north side of the lake with 18-24 inches being reported by readers.

The Main Event:

There is another wave of precipitation moving through early this morning (Wednesday) ahead of the storm off the coast, bringing more snow.

That is expected to lift out of the area later this morning.  We could see a short lull midday with light snow showers before heavier precipitation pushes in as the storm off the coast pushes in this afternoon.

Winds:

The winds are already gusting to 90+ mph on the mountain tops this morning.  Expect a lot of upper mountain lift closures today into Thursday as the winds get stronger as the storm moves through.  Expecting gusts to 100+ mph tonight on the mountain tops with blizzard conditions over the passes, possibly closing the roads.  Strong winds Thursday but coming down through the day, not sure if they get low enough by the end of the day to open upper mountain lifts on wind exposed mountains.

Snow Levels:

Warmer air will also work in today through tonight.  The snow level forecast is tricky with this storm.  The freezing levels are forecast to rise to 8,500 feet tonight before falling to 7,000 feet by Thursday morning.  That would normally mean snow levels could peak around 7,500 feet tonight, but the very heavy precipitation could keep them a bit lower and drop them faster overnight. 

For now, expecting snow levels around 6,000 feet during the day today, rising to around 6,500 feet by this evening.  Then to 7,000-7,500 feet by 10 PM, and then falling during the early morning hours as the cold front moves in.  Snow levels should be back down around 6,000 feet by 4 AM and then continuing to lower on Thursday down to 4,000 feet by Thursday night.  That will make the snow more powdery through the day on Thursday.

Snowfall:

Not much change to the snowfall forecast for this storm again this morning.  The model average has been pretty consistent the last few days.  The range is tighter this morning with 3.5 - 4.7 inches of total precipitation forecast near the crest through Thursday night.  The total model average is 4 inches with the GFS/Euro model average used in the snowfall forecast at 4.3 inches near the crest, and 3 inches on the east side of the lake.  So plenty of precipitation spilling over to the east side.

For Wednesday we could an additional 1-3 inches at lake level before a change to rain.  On the mountains 1-6 inches from east to west across the lake.  Wednesday night we have rain at lake level most of the night turning to snow in the early morning hours.  That makes for a tricky forecast.  I have 3-5 inches at lake level tonight, but that could be higher if the snow levels fall faster.  On the mountains 10-23 inches tonight.  That would be 11-29 additional inches of snow by 4 a.m. Thursday morning.

During the day Thursday we could see an additional 6-12 inches at lake level, and 10-18 inches on the mountains.  Then a final 1-4 inches at lake level Thursday night, and 1-6 inches on the mountain.  The trend on the latest model runs is to wind down the snow showers by around midnight, so we should wake up to clearing skies on Friday with lighter winds for a nice powder day.

Here is a look at the total precipitation forecast on the GFS model this morning through Thursday night.

It has up to 4.2 inches of additional precip near the crest.  Since we keep getting the highest model output NW of the lake the last few storms, we should at least mention that.  The NAM with 4.7 inches of precip forecast, at an average snow ratio at 8k of 12:1, would give us up to 57 inches of additional snowfall by Friday morning along the crest at 8k.  

Here is the final forecast for this storm using the GFS/Euro average for total precip, and my own formulas for snow ratios and snow levels.

Here are the average snow ratios, snow levels, and ridge top winds for each 12 hour period.

Friday-Saturday:

Nice weather for Friday into Saturday as high pressure builds in over CA.  We should see sun, light winds and highs in the 30's Friday and 40's Saturday.

Next Storm:

The next storm for Sunday is holding together a little better on the latest model runs.  We could see this system push through Sunday afternoon/evening.  Snow levels start high around 7k and fall below lake level as the storm moves through.  We could see several inches of snow on the mountains, and a few inches at lake level.  I will fine tune the details once we get through this big storm.

Starting Monday high pressure builds in off the West Coast blocking storms through the last week of January.

Much of the country will have cold air pouring in with the cold trough over the central and eastern U.S. Depending on how close the ridge is to the West Coast, we could see some colder air move in bu the pattern looks to remain pretty dry for at least 10 days.

The long-range ensemble runs do start to show the pattern trying to change around the end of the month into the 1st week of February, so we will be keeping an eye on that.

Stay tuned...BA

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