Tahoe Daily Snow

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By Bryan Allegretto, Forecaster Posted 5 years ago March 19, 2019

3 Storms Over the Next 7 Days...

Summary

- We will see increasing clouds on Tuesday as the next storm approaches. Highs in the 40's on the mountains and 50's at lake level. - A weak system pushes in Tuesday night, with scattered showers possible into Thursday. Snow levels starting around 8,000 feet, falling to around 6,000 - 6,500 feet Wednesday, 5,000 - 5,500 feet Wednesday night, and back up to 6,500 feet Thursday. We could see 1-6 inches of snow on the mountains above 7,000 feet with rain & snow at lake level. Highs in the 30's on the mountains to near 40 at lake level. - We could see a break on Friday with some sun & clouds and highs in the 30's on the mountains to 40's at lake level. - The next storm moves through quickly Friday night into Saturday. Snow levels starting above 7,000 feet and falling below lake level as the front sweeps through. This system could drop a quick 1-5 inches of snow across the Tahoe basin. Highs remain in the 30's on the mountains. - We could see another break Sunday-Monday with some sun and cool temperatures. The next storm could push into CA next Tuesday-Wednesday. - The pattern could remain active through the 1st week of April.

Short Term Forecast

Not much change to the forecast this morning.  We are tracking 3 storms that will move into CA over the next week.  The first is approaching the coast this morning and will push in tonight.

satellite

Storm #1:

The negatively tilted trough off the coast will push into CA tonight into Wednesday, with low pressure spinning over NV into Thursday.  That should bring some steadier rain/snow showers tonight into Wednesday, and more scattered showers Wednesday night into Thursday. 

In total, the precipitation amounts are expected to be light.  There is a big range on the latest model runs from 0.3 to 1.3 inches of total precipitation.  We will have to watch where the heaviest showers set up over the next 2 days.  It looks like the best chance for the heaviest showers could be SW of the lake.

gfs1

The snow level could start around 8,000 feet tonight as the rain & snow first start, and then could fall to near lake level by morning.  During breaks in the precip, snow levels could be up around 7,000 feet and could fall to near lake level under any heavier showers Wednesday.  Wednesday night the snow levels could fall below 6,000 feet before coming back up to just above lake level Thursday before the system clears the area.

That means we could see rain/snow/rain with little if any accumulations at lake level.  The best chance would be at night on cold surfaces.  Around 7,000 feet we could see wet snow, with drier snow possible above 8,000 feet.  Here is the final forecast for this system.  The amounts haven't really changed.

snowfall1

We aren't expecting strong winds with this storm.

Storm #2:

We should see a break Thursday night through Friday.  We could see sun and clouds Friday with cooler temperatures in the 30's on the upper mountains and 40's at lake level.  

Friday night into Saturday morning a fast moving system moves through.  The snow levels could start around 7,000 feet Friday evening but should fall quickly below lake level as the front sweeps through.  We could clear out Saturday afternoon. 

sat storm

Total precipitation amounts look light with the speed of the storm.  Here is the GFS total precipitation forecast through Saturday.

gfs2

Here is the updated snowfall forecast for this storm.  A fast-moving system that drops a quick 1-5 inches on the mountains. 

snowfall2 

We should see a break in storms Sunday into Monday.  Temperatures through the weekend and into next week remain cool, with highs in the 30's on the upper mountains and 40's at lake level.  

Storm #3:

By Monday there is a cut-off low off the West Coast spinning and drawing in moisture.  The low moves slowly towards the CA coast into Tuesday.  Some model runs try to push in some light showers Tuesday, but most of the precip may hold off until the low moves through Tuesday night through Wednesday night.

With the slow moving nature of this system and it drawing in more moisture than the previous systems, we could see a decent amount of snow on the mountains.  It's a little too early to look at the details.  Here is the GFS total precipitation forecast updated through next Thursday.

gfs3

Overall, an active week of weather ahead starting tonight through next Wednesday.

Extended Forecast

The forecast models do not agree on whether or not we could see a break in the storms for the weekend of the 30th-31st, or storms continue.  They do agree that high pressure should remain from Alaska to Western Canada with the storm door remaining open underneath into CA through the first week of April.

trough

The differences in the forecasts just seem to be timing issues, with some models show more cut-off lows that move through more slowly, while other models show faster and more consistent storms through the first week of April.  

Either way, we may continue to see storms at least every few days over the next 2-3 weeks.  After the weak El Nino not affecting the pattern very much this season and the MJO seeming to be in control, the MJO is now dead and the El Nino is strengthening likely helping to contribute to an active pattern into April.

Stay tuned...BA

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About Our Forecaster

Bryan Allegretto

Forecaster

Bryan Allegretto has been writing insightful posts about snow storms for over the last 15 years and is known as Tahoe's go-to snow forecaster. BA grew up in south Jersey, surfing, snowboarding, and chasing down the storms creating the epic conditions for both.

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