Not much change to the forecast this morning.  It is cold with very light snow showers falling around the area this morning.  Scattered snow showers will continue today with very light accumulations of an inch or two.  Winds may gust up to 25 mph on the mountain tops.  High's will only be in the 20's.

We could see some sun in the morning, but increasing clouds and wind as the next storm approaches.  We could see winds gust up to 70 mph on the mountain tops.  That is up from the previous forecast so watch the lift statuses tomorrow.  The snow showers from the next weak system could arrive by late afternoon.  Highs remain in the 20's.

The forecast models are slightly wetter for Sunday night on the latest model runs this morning, but not much.  Only a couple tenths of an inch, but with snow ratios of 15:1 or higher only a slight increase can add a couple inches of snow.  Snow showers could linger into Monday morning before we start to clear out.  Winds come back down Monday.

Here is a look at the latest GFS model runs for total precipitation through Monday morning.

The European model is slightly wetter than the GFS for Sunday night.  Taking the average here is the updated snowfall forecast.

Like I continue to say, just slight shifts in the track of the low as is moves down from the North can adjust the forecast up or down several inches.  We have one more day to fine tune the forecast.  Monday should be a great day after the storm.

We are still expecting high pressure to build in over the West Coast starting Tuesday.  That should bring dry weather and a warming trend through the rest of the week.  Highs start in the 30's Tuesday and warm into the 40's by the end of the week.  The snow on the ground could help with inversions at night with colder overnight lows in the valleys.  That could make it take longer to warm the lower elevations.

High pressure looks like it may start to weaken the 2nd week of March.  The European model tries to push a storm in around the 6th.  The GFS keeps the storm track to our North until the 10th with a weak system the 10th, and a stronger storm around the 12th.  So we will watch the 2nd week of March to see if the storms could return.  Will we see a dry spell for a week, or 2 weeks?  It gets a little interesting that week for the World Cup at Squaw Valley.

The long-range ensemble mean runs show that a trough could start to develop over the West Coast by the 12th, so that could signal a pattern change.

Stay tuned...BA

Geography Key:

East

Mt. Rose, Heavenly, Diamond Peak

Central

Northstar

West

Tahoe Donner, Homewood, Bear Valley, Dodge Ridge

Crest

Boreal, Donner Ski Ranch, Sugar Bowl, Squaw, Alpine, Sierra, Kirkwood

*Boreal and Donner Ski Ranch are forecast with the "West" mountains in higher snow levels events.