Sorry for the missed post yesterday.  There were issues with the forecast model sight and I wasn't able to get the data I normally use to get out the most accurate forecast.  Back on track this morning.  Not much change to the forecast since Friday.

We have had a partly cloudy and breezy weekend with some periods of rain showers moving through.  That will continue today and tomorrow.  Winds are gusting close to 50 mph this morning on the mountain tops, and that should continue through Monday.

The next storm moves in by Tuesday morning.  It will tap some decent subtropical moisture off the Pacific, but much of that will cut off by the time the moisture pushes South into the Tahoe area.

The Southerly flow ahead of the cold front will keep snow levels around 8000 feet as the storm begins Tuesday and then falling to lake level by later in the afternoon.  The heaviest precip falls during the day Tuesday as snow levels are falling.  So half or more of the storm may fall as snow above 7000 feet on most of the upper mountain terrain.  We could see a couple inches of snow to lake level, but with the warm surfaces from the past week it may only stick to the shaded or colder surfaces like the grass and decks.  

The models are in good agreement that the precip cuts off pretty quickly Tuesday evening.  Here is a look at the total precip forecast by Tuesday nigh on the GFS.

The European and Canadian models are slightly drier.  It looks like several inches for the mountains with a high end of maybe a foot above 8000 feet along the crest.  Winds Tuesday will be gusting up to 70 mph on the mountain tops.  Snow ratios will be low, so it may be a thicker snow and windy for Tuesday on the upper mountains.

It looks like only very light snow showers possible Tuesday night and then a weak wave moving through Wednesday.  That could bring snow showers and an additional inch or two to the mountains.  Snow levels will be to lake level, but only a coating most likely.  This time of year with the higher sun angle and warmer temps you usually need heavier snowfall to get accumulating snows at lake level.

Here is a look at the snow ratios through Wednesday.

Here is the updated total snowfall forecast for the 2 day period.

The trough is along the West Coast by Wednesday.

That will keep the colder air in place Thursday, and keep the storm door open for the next storm on Friday.  This storm may pull a bit more subtropical moisture into the Tahoe region than the Tuesday storm.

You can see with this storm the moisture is pulling from North of Hawaii instead of South of Hawaii with the first storm.  The snow levels are looking like they could start out around 7000-7500 feet this time instead of 8000 feet with the first storm.  However, they may hover there most of the day Friday before falling with a cold front Friday night below lake level.  The latest model runs keep snow showers going into next Saturday before the storm moves out.

Here is a look at the GFS total precip forecast through next Saturday.

The European model is only slightly drier with the 2nd storm, and Canadian model is drier than the GFS.  Here is the initial GFS/European averaged snowfall forecast for the Friday-Saturday storm.

So a colder and snowier forecast for this upcoming week after a prolonged stretch of drier and milder weather over the last 2 weeks.

The long-range of the models show the ridge starting to build in off the coast next weekend, but we may see another storm drop in around Monday the 27th.  The GFS is further South with the storm while the European model runs are keeping it further North just brushing us.

There seems to be better agreement that the ridge could build in by Tuesday the 28th with some drier weather the rest of that week.

By the week of April 3rd the GFS ensemble mean runs have the trough back along the West Coast.

The European ensemble mean runs have the ridge still along the coast with a drier weather pattern.  The Canadian ensemble mean runs are in the middle with the ridge far enough off the coast for a trough in the West.

We will have to see if the colder and unsettled weather pattern could return the first week of April.  

Stay tuned...BA

Geography Key:

East

Mt. Rose, Heavenly, Diamond Peak

Central

Northstar

West

Tahoe Donner, Homewood, Bear Valley, Dodge Ridge

Crest

Boreal, Donner Ski Ranch, Sugar Bowl, Squaw, Alpine, Sierra, Kirkwood

*Boreal and Donner Ski Ranch are forecast with the "West" mountains in higher snow levels events.