Upper Midwest Daily Snow

Heads up, there may be fresher snow! Read the latest Upper Midwest Daily Snow

By Andrew Murray, Technical Founder & Meteorologist Posted 6 years ago November 2, 2017

2017-18 Upper Midwest Winter Outlook

It’s that time of the year again, the leaves have changed colors and the snowflakes have started to fly. Further north, many locations have already seen some snow accumulation, but most ski areas are still weeks away from opening their doors. So let’s break down what it looks like we are in store for this winter.

Northern Minnesota has already seen its first accumulations for the year

Firstly, here is my annual disclaimer that comes with any seasonal forecast: we are talking generalities. Just because we might have a wet/dry or cold/hot winter doesn’t mean that there won’t be weeks without snowfall or a 2 foot snowstorm in the middle of March. Winter storms are nearly impossible to forecast more than a week out. However, seasonal models can still give us an idea of which patterns have a better chance of occurring over the course of a winter. So all of that being said…

According to long range models and the NOAA winter outlook most of the upper midwest looks to stay on the cooler and slightly wetter side on average between now and March. This is because there is good confidence that we will be having another La Nina winter across North America.

NOAA forecasts for this winter. Very much banking on a La Nina winter.

Now I know what you are saying, “but last year was a La Nina and it was horrible”. Interestingly, almost every month of last winter was above average in terms of precipitation for a large portion of the upper midwest. However, temperatures stubbornly stayed a few degrees above normal during a bulk of the winter, meaning that many places, especially further south, saw more rain that snow. Additionally, the ‘heat wave’ of mid-January to late-February last year decimated most of our snowpack mid-season, making it feel even worse. I wrote up a summary from last winter in April if you want to know more about that.

So yes, there is a chance that could happen again, another winter of slightly warmer temperatures and a lot of rain. However, there is an equal of chance of being colder and seeing another 2013-14 season where the snow didn’t see to stop falling and the temperatures didn’t seem to get above zero.

Right now I’d place my money on somewhere in between.

Cold weather and snow in October doesn’t have any correlation with how the rest of the winter will play out. So for all of those winter lovers out there, it’s time to pull out the jackets, dust off the skis, and hopefully only wait a few more weeks until the real snow starts to fly.

About Our Forecaster

Andrew Murray

Technical Founder & Meteorologist

Andrew manages the technology that powers OpenSnow, and he also keeps an eye on the weather for the Upper Midwest from his home base in Minneapolis since 2015.

Free OpenSnow App