A quick forecast update today, lots of snowpack info below.  

Same forecast as the last few days.  Plenty of moisture just to our north.  Northern Utah will be brushed at times.  We should have chances for snow in the high elevations on several occasions, most notably on Friday night and on Monday.  Accumulations will likely be on the light side with perhaps just a few creamy inches.  Highest totals probably found in the Bear River range and up near Beaver mountain.  here is what models are currently portraying for snowfall totals: 

GFS

Euro: 

If you're going to ask what is the best chance for soft snow, my best guess at this point would be Monday.  There is not much in the way of cold air, so it will likely be dense and perhaps confined to areas above 7000 feet.  

Eventually we will clear out around middle of next week with high pressure, warm temps, and clear skies taking control.  

Snowpack Analysis: 

WARNING: What you are about to read may cause nausea and vomiting.  Do not read below analysis if you are sensitive to bad news, pregnant or may become pregnant, over the age of 75, or have experienced bad news before.  Do not read snowpack analysis if you are allergic to low numbers.  If you continue to feel sad for 4 hours after reading snowpack analysis, please call your therapist immediately as you may be experiencing a life-threatening condition known as snow depression.  

Where do we stand now?  Well, overall numbers across the state are not good... 

Basically things go from bad in the north, to horrible in the south.  Let's take a look at the south first, Midway Valley near Brian Head: 

I picked a selection of recent bad years.  2006-07 (gold), 2011-12 (light blue), 2014-15 (red), this year (green), and average is blue line.  You can see that all these seasons ended well below normal, but down south, this season is setting a new bar for crappiness.  Currently sitting at 46% of median, which is actually good compared to some nearby lower elevation snotel sites.  

Looking farther north, here is Park City (Thaynes Canyon): 

Same years, same story.  Right now we are just about even with 2012 for worst.  The good news is that if we can just get a couple storms into the region in the next two months, we should pass 2015 which had an abysmal Feb and March.  PC sitting at a respectable 67% of median, although lower elevations are far worse.  

Ben Lomond Peak (near Snowbasin/PowMow): 

Historically one of the snowier places in the Wasatch, Ben Lomond is struggling with only 44% of median.  We are actually slightly ahead of 2007 however... so there's that.... 

Now up to the far north.  Tony Grove Lake near Beaver Mountain: 

Really not that bad.  86% of median with 18" of SWE on the ground.  All those "bad" years are actually somewhat close to normal.  I'm always amazed by the ability of that region to do okay while the rest of the Wasatch struggles.  

Now, let's look at Snowbird: 

I left out average on this image for some reason which changed all the colors.  But you can see that we are now behind 2012 by several inches of SWE.  We are slightly ahead of 2007, but 2007 had a great second half of February so we might fall behind soon.  If we can just have a somewhat decent next three months, we should easily catch 2015... but who knows at this point.  We are definitely threatening the worst season ever.   Here is a look at where we stand compared to the minimum SWE at Snowbird: 

That red line is the worst SWE numbers.  All season we've been straddling it.  We could be setting a new standard if we don't get some snow into the region soon.  Here is what it will take to get us back to more normal numbers: 

The black line is this year.  The high blue line is what will happen if we see the same amount as our best year ever from this point on.... We would actually finish above normal for the season.  Unlikely to happen...  The light blue line shows us at 90% of that maximum.  That would get us to right about normal.  Still unlikely to happen, but you never know.  Right in the middle is a green line that shows us if we get just "normal" precip from this point forward.  We will finish at about 75% of normal snowpack for the season.  That's probably the most likely scenario, although the current forecast could make even that a bit tricky.  If things continue to be poor and we have very little snow from this point forward.  It is certainly possible that we could have our worst season yet.  

Of course, this data doesn't go back past 1981.  The worst season on record is likely still 76-77.  That year Alta Guard UDOT only had 80" of snow at this point.  This year we don't have the same data yet, but the ski area is reporting 143" which means the UDOT station is likely at about 100" or so.  So it is indeed a bit better this season than 1977.  We also have snowmaking capabilities this year.  

If you are looking for some good news, you maybe able to take solace in this: 

We are only about halfway thru the season in terms of total snowfall.  We have 3 full snowy months remaining and while the base is not as deep as usual, most terrain is open.  Which means that we will still have plenty of good powder days remaining before we wrap up this winter.  I would not give up on this season just yet.  

Evan | OpenSnow